Season Preview

Coming off of a Superbowl victory in Indianapolis, expectations are shockingly low for the Giants.  Very few have them near the top of the polls and given that they didn’t lose any quality players from last year’s team, it would at first blush seem surprising.  However, remember that the Giants were only 9-7 in the regular season and got hot at the right time.  Also be aware that the reward for the Superbowl win and playing in the NFC East is one of the most difficult schedules of any team in recent memory.  It is likely that the Giants would be favored by 3 points or more in only 4 or 5 of their games of their schedule if the games were played today.  That is usually a statement you would associate with a team coming off of a 4-12 season.  

The Giants only “key” personnel losses from last year (payers starting or subs with significant playing time) were Brandon Jacobs, Mario Manningham, Aaron Ross, Kareem McKenzie, Jake Ballard and Deon Grant.  by the measuement of most statistical experts, Mackenzie was one of the leages worst rated lineman and has not been picked up by any other team.  Deon Grant is also too old and slow, and his replacement Will Hill looked to be a significant improvement in the pre-season.  Jacobs’s best days are long gone, and rookie first round pick David Wilson has shown enough speed and ability to be excited about his role in replacing Jacobs.  Manningham carved out a nice body of work with the Giants, and his Superbowl catch will forever make him a Giant fan favorite, but he plays the position the Giants are deepest at and will not be missed at all.  Free agent acquisition Martellus Bennet, should be an improvement over Ballard.

The Giants had a relatively uneventful pre-season.  Overshadowed by the Tebow side show across town, the Giants slipped under the radar.  They had some injuries, specifically at  DT and CB, but all teams do. As far as defensive tackle is concerned, Linval Joseph and Rocky Bernard should be able to hold down the fort until Canty comes off the PUP and Marvin Austin gets healthy (back injury, expected back for week 2).  At cornerback, Terrel Thomas became a 3 time ACL tear victim.  I hope he recovers better than I did from my 3rd ACL tear.  Prince Amukamara will have to show he was worthy of the first round pick from 2011. So far his biggest claim to fame is getting bullied in the locker room by his teammates.  Coe will fill in for him in week 1, and Jayron Holsey also shows promise as the slot cornerback.

The Giant offense should continue where it left off last year.  Eli Manning is now widely considered elite.  He had a spectacular year and has really come into his own.  He is a top 5 NFL quarterback and the unquestioned star of the team.  Last years numbers will be difficult to duplicate, but 62% passing, 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns are doable.

At running back, Bradshaw has lost a step but is still very good and should be healthy for the first time in years.  Wilson looks like an exciting playmaker.  They made a wise choice in going with Scott and Brown instead of Ware as backups.  They have more upside.  Bradshaw will finish with 1,000 yards rushing at a 4.2 per carry clip, and Brown will finish with 600 yards.

The receivers are a team strength.  Hakeem Nicks may be the best receiver this team has ever had. If he plays a full 16 games, and teams pa attention to some of the other good Giant receivers he can put up scary numbers.  I’m predicting 85 catches and 1250 yards and a pro bowl this year.  Across the field, Victor Cruz was last year’s breakout player.  Its scary to think that if not for injuries to Hixon and Manningham he may never had the chance.  He is now a bona fide star and he looked very good in pre-season.  However, the ball clearly bounced his way last year and more attention will now be paid.  Expect 75 catches and 1050 yards.  Hixon was named the number 3 receiver.  He is solid, but I would have loved to see Ramses Barden given the chance for this important / quasi starter role.  He finally showed the talent we all knew he had in a few preseason games this year and that was without even using his extraordinary height advantage.  This is his last year under contract.  I’d like to see what he has.  Rookie Ruben Randle flashed as well and will see some time.  Jerrel Jernigan has his fans but I am not one of them.  I think he is just too small to play this game at this level, and while he is fast, at his size you need unparrareled speed and he does not have that.  This pick will prove to be a waste.

The offensive line is the teams weak spot.  Expect the Giants to draft high here next year. Chris Snee is the only above average lineman and he is a bit past his prime.  

On defense the strength of the team is the D-line, specifically the ends.  Jason Pierre Paul (here on only referred to as JPP) is  a beast with the potential to be the best lineman in the NFL and dear we say it, be remember in almost LT type of Giants lore by the time he is done.  He will quickly surpass Strahan in stature.  Side note- Congrats to Strahan on getting the talk show job with Kelly Ripa but he is a fake.  I was in the box next to FOX’s at the Superbowl in Dallas and while his colleague Howie Long came over and was extremely nice, Strahan blew us off –wouldn’t even give us a hello.  Having JPP in the lineup always makes it seem like the Giants have an advantage.  No player can stop him one on one.  As I write this, my assistant is out buying my JPP jersey that I will wear to tonight’s game and to every subsequent game for the duration of his 12 year Giant career.  Justin Tuck and Umenyiora round out a premier threesome.  Expect a now healthy Tuck to have a bounce back year.  Adrian Tracey and preseason surprise Ojomo, round out an incredibly strong defensive end grouping.  Ojomo and Tracey will be needed to step next year when Osi is gone.  In a future blog I will explain how upsetting it was that the Giants gave in to the Osi blackmail and paid him more than they had to given his contract for this year.  They should look at how the Jaguars stood their ground with MJD.  Osi’s arguments were incredibly disingenuous.  He is also a bit overrated as he cant play the run at all.  At tackle Linval Joseph is very strong and Canty is solid and should be back for game 7.  Rocky Bernard can hold down the fort until then.  I’m excited to see what Marvin Austin will bring to this team when healthy.  If it is what I expect, Canty will not be back next year.  

The linebacking crew, which has been a weak point for a number of years, but last year’s rookie crew now has a training camp under their belt and are maturing very quickly.  They will be with the team for years to come.  Kiwi may be out of position but is one of my favorite Giants and has caught on to the opposition.  Boley is the leader out there and Rivers was a nice signing.  Although you have to wonder if the Giants knew Demarcus Ryan was available.  He would have been a much better signing than Rivers.  Middle linebacker is a weakness. The job is held down by the solid Chase Blackburn, until Mark Herzlich eventually steals his job.

In the secondary Webster is a notch below pro bowl and very solid.  I had high hoped for a Terrel Thomas return from injury but that will not be happening this year.  It’s doubtful he ever plays another down for them.  Prince needs to step up, but replacing a cornerback who cant beat his wife in a foot race shouldn’t be too hard even if he is married to Olympic medal winner Sanya Richards.  The safety's are solid and I’m excited to see Will Hill play.  He flew all over the place in preseason.  I predict next year the Giants will be rid of either Rolle or Phillips to get him into the starting lineup.  

In summary, the Giants have a better roster this year than last year but will face a tougher schedule and will be unlikely to have the ball bounce in their direction down the stretch.  They will be in the mix but will finish the season at 106 and will be forced to play a road playoff game.  This time they will not overcome.

As for tonight, the Giants will get the season off to a good start by beating the Cowboys 24-20.