​New York Giants 2018-2019 Season Preview

Many are buying into the hype. The Giants drafted Saquon Barkley, the running back “touched by the hand of G-d.” according to GM Dave Gettleman. I agree Barkley is a tremendous talent but is he enough to make this team that much better?

As those who read my draft preview and review are aware, I do not believe that there is enough positional value at the running back position to take a running back that high. I offered some statistical proof in the draft preview. This is not fantasy football where the running back matters more than anything. In the real NFL the value variance between a good running back and an average one is just not that high. Much of the running efficiency is predicated on the work of the offensive line and independent of the actual running back, but running efficiency is not super high in terms of predictive outcome of a victory.

The biggest problem the Giants have is that they picked on old GM who is just not that familiar with advanced statistical metrics. In baseball, much of the statistics are more easily measurable and as a result were more widely implemented in the years following the release of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball.

The Oakland A’s who had first implemented the advanced statistical component of player evaluation outperformed their payrolls expectancy for years until release of the book. Within a couple of years of the release of the book, much of their edge was gone and their limited payroll impacted them more. In football, the stats are not always as easy to decipher and Gettleman doesn’t get it.  This does not bode well for the future of the franchise.

I’ve disagreed with most of what he has done since taking over. Not only do I think they should have taken Darnold with the first pick, everything they did in free agency and with trades and cutting players has been wrong. JPP was not worth the contract he had received but once the bonus was paid in year one, there was no point in trading him away. The unamortized portion of the bonus hit the Giants anyway. The remaining amount was not above his value. More importantly, this is a player who was actually made for a 3-4 defense more than a 4-3 defense. He would have been great. Also in the NFL today there are effectively 3 starting cornerbacks. DRC was still a very effective player and cutting him made no sense. They now have a whole at the 3rd cornerback (although I think the diminutive Donte Deayon is underrated and could make a real contribution). Ogletree was a poor pick up. The Rams were very happy to get rid of him and Football outsiders had him very poorly rated. Watching him trying to cover tight ends and running backs in the preseason was painful.

He over paid for Nate Solder. It may have been a necessity to get someone there but ultimately it can’t be at any cost. Solder has the highest contract at that position in the league and he is just a B+ talent.   Will Hernandez was actually a good pick and will contribute at guard, but signing Patrick Omameh was a bad signing. It was not as bad as signing Jonathan Stewart. He will make nearly $4m this year. He is 31 years old and should be out of the league.  He has not been effective in this league for 2 years. He should not have made the team but they didn’t want to embarrass the GM by cutting him.  He is going to be the 3rd string running back, meaning he won’t play much at all. If you add his compensation to what Omameh makes and you could have had Justin Pugh back. Pugh was their one very good lineman and should not be guilty by association. I’d like this line much better if he was there.
 
Trading away Brett Jones for a 7th rounder also made no sense. Having a GM that doesn’t understand positional value or the impact on the salary cap of decisions is worrisome.  He also over-values his own former players and signing Panther players to protect the legacy of his old decisions is a big problem.

Having said that, there are reasons this season won’t be a disaster. Firstly, even though I don’t think Barkley over Darnold was the smart pick, Barkley should add more value this year. Running backs have their highest value right away while Quarterbacks tend to improve over the course of their first few years as they learn the league. It’s because the running back position is 90% physical, while the QB position is at least 50% non-physical skills (as Peyton Manning really showed with the Broncos).

I’m not a believer that the Giants offensive line is much better than it was, but it is a little bit better. The RB position is improved but the biggest improvement will come from the return of OBJ. There is no question that with him back the entire game changes. Engram as a third option instead of one could be great, and Shepard is in line for an excellent season. 

On defense, the Giants will be very good at stopping the run.  Snacks Harrison is the best there is at stopping the run and Tomlinson is really solid too. The problem will be that they don’t have any pass rush. Olivier Vernon will have a good year and get his first double-digit sack year but there is not much after him and he is out week one with an ankle injury. If not for that, I liked the Giants match up against the Jags as they can shut down the Jags run game and Bortles doesn’t scare me. But with no Vernon and no third cornerback it could be tough to stop them. Ramsey could make Beckham much less effective.  He is one of the few CBs in the league that can play him one on one which changes the entire dynamic.  (First game prediction Jags 20-17).

While hoping I’m wrong, I see the Giants coming in at 7-9. If a few things break the right way the upside is 9-7 which in some seasons sneaks you into the playoffs, but there is a higher likelihood of 5-11, which could at least set them up to take a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.

-Ari Glass