Giants Season: Post Mortem

It was a bad season.  We had predicted 7-9 but acknowledged that 5-11 was much more realistic than 9-7. 

It was a tale of two halves.  The first half they were 1-7 and completely inept on offense but decent on defense. The second half their offense was one of the higher scoring teams but their defense suffered from a couple of bad trades made by the Giants to dump players in the middle of year that was clearly not going anywhere.

The O-line was as bad as we feared.  It killed Manning’s ability to stand in the pocket and hurt superstar rookie RB Barkley’s ability to consistently pound out yards each down.  Mid-season they upgraded the line by finally cutting the horrible Flowers and replacing him with a still at best mediocre Chad Wheeler, and cutting Omameh and replacing him with Jamon Brown, a solid but unspectacular Guard who got caught up in a numbers game with the Rams and the Giants were fortunate to pick him up on waivers since they had the second pick as a bad team.  Going from horrible to mediocre was a huge upgrade and significantly helped the offense.  With a solid tackle resigning Jamon Brown will be ok.  Wheeler must go to improve the line.  On the left side of the online they massively overpaid for Nate Solder. Nothing can be done about that anymore, but at least he is solid. Hernandez had an excellent rookie year at Left Guard and should be there for the next 10 years.  They claim to like Halapio who got injured early and should be back, but it’s still disappointing that they gave away Brett Jones for a 7th round pick.  He performed well in Minnesota and the Giants did not get good enough return for him. If the top pass rushers are not available when the Giants pick at 6 this coming year, they should strongly consider offensive tackle Jonah Williams who would solidify their line.

Their defense was OK early. Then they traded the best run-stuffer in the NFL in Damon Harrison and a solid #2 corner-back in Eli Apple.  They also lost star safety, Collins late in the year. The upsetting part about the trades was not the impact it had on this year’s team; this year’s team wasn’t going anywhere anyway. It’s that these two players were still performing better than their contracts and would have been pluses for 2019. The Giants can’t stop the run or pass. That is a bad combo. Getting Collins back (he is a restricted free agent), along with signing an adequate free safety is important. Their linebackers are solid but not spectacular and their line has some components but needs more. Most importantly, they need a far greater pass rush. It got a little better when Oliver Vernon returned and the rookie Carter started to under earn the game but they are one game changer away here.  If one of the elite pass rushers is still available with the #6 pick next year, the Giants should go in that direction.

The Giants did draft Sam Beal in last year’s supplemental draft and he is highly thought of by the organization.  He missed the year with an injury but should come in as a starter next year.
Barkley was the all-World, “Touched by the hand of God” back that Gettleman predicted he would be. I’m still not convinced that the positional value was there to draft him at #2, but I’m also confident that my son will be playing the video of my screaming for Darnold at the draft and being upset about Barkley, at Barkley’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 15 years.  As a fan, he is truly a pleasure to watch. Even the bad games I watched until the end just to see him. He is as good of a running back as I have seen play. If he gets to play behind a real offensive line, he should be good for 1600-1800 yards of rushing in addition to 600 receiving. He will threaten records. I still think his second contract will pay him less per year than the 20th best quarterback will make that year- so the argument is still out there against, but I prefer to enjoy the Barkley experience and not focus on that.

The Eli debate-

As I’ve said for a while, while he is not at the elite level he was in 2014, with a good line he is still a quality quarterback and was not the problem. When line play improved in the second half of the year so did his play. He shouldn’t lose his mental acumen and his arm strength is still there.  I’m sure his mobility is more limited but that was never part of his game. Drafting the wrong quarterback will set a team back for years. I’m not sold on Haskins from Ohio State and Justin Herbert is not coming out.  I am not in favor of the Giants drafting a QB in the draft this year. Hopefully Gettleman plays his poker well and gets Manning to come back for closer to $15m than the $23m he is otherwise playing for. At that price he makes sense for next year.
I’m not a fan of Flacco or even Nick Foles (at least not at the $20m per year he may get). Presumably, Pat Shurmur has both the inside track and inside information on how good Teddy Bridgewater is having coached him in Minnesota.  If he is convinced that he is healthy and he likes his talent, getting him to sign for 3 years at $15m could make sense.  Otherwise you need to wait for the class of 2020 which is supposed to be a high quality QB class unlike this one.  This is clearly the biggest decision that needs to happen this offseason. Gettleman better have a good poker face. Given that Eli is a big family man and his kids have been raised in new jersey and are starting to get old enough that their opinion matters, I suspect that Eli will not want to move his family for the last year or two of his career to go play in a Jacksonville or somewhere else. 

Lastly, I keep reading that the Giants should cut Vernon and Jenkins because of their high salaries. Given that their bonuses were large and much of it is a sunk cost, the salary impact of keeping versus cutting is not enough for them to cut them. They should be kept. Note, however, that this was the mistake Gettleman made on JPP this past year. 
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It was a disappointing year but there are some pieces in place. The draft seemed to be a decent one with at least 4 players who will be playing major roles with the Giants going forward.  They need a strong 2019 draft which will be helped by a high pick. I think Gettleman is not the right GM.  He is ok as a draft expert, but he doesn’t understand enough about salary cap management and other financial and statistical requirements of the role. I will painfully watch other teams compete in the playoffs and hope the Giants do enough in the offseason.
 
 -Ari Glass