Giants 2021 Preview

The Giants went all out in the off-season to compete this year. The way the NFL salary cap works, with the ability to spread bonuses over the life of the contract, it effectively allows for deficit spending (the spending of future years cap to get players this year).  I think it is inadvisable to do that when you are a 6-win team (it makes mote sense to try to take a 10-win team to the Super bowl) but now that they have done that, a major improvement should be seen. Somewhat surprisingly, Gettleman, who I consider to be a subpar GM, did address most of the biggest issues the Giants had. 

The Giant’s defense was a good defense last year- top 10 by most measurements. This was with 2 major liabilities: a lack of good edge rushers and a horrific CB2 situation. Both were addressed. The return from injury of Lorenzo Carter (and to a lesser extent Ximenes), along with the drafting of Azeez Ojulari will materially improve this. When combined with the inside dominance of Leonard Williams, the Giants should have a good pass rush.  Signing Adoree Jackson, even if overpaying, took care of the very weak link of CB2.  A defense is only as good as its weakest link.  These additions could propel the Giants to a top 5 defense.

The offense has been the Achilles Heel for years now.  Its no secret that the offensive line has been a mess for many years, and it is no longer due to ignoring it.  Money was spent of free agents and draft picks devoted. The problem is we picked the wrong guys. Nate Solder was one of the worst ever free agent signings and Andrew Thomas a horrible #4 overall draft pick (Especially when considering the performance of the 3 tackles taken after him).  Thomas should improve and I like the depth added over the past couple of weeks via trades with Baltimore for Ben Bredeson and to a lesser extent with the Bengals for Billy Price. I think there is a good chance that Bredeson takes over for Shane Lemieux by week 3 and ultimately will be the reason that Will Hernandez isn’t resigned this off season.

The bull case on this offense is the improvements made through free agency and return from injury.   While I don’t believe any running back is worth the number 2 pick in the draft, Barkley is elite and his missing most of the season with the knee injury last year had a material impact on the offense.  He is back and should be healthy and a material improvement for the running game and the passing game.

Signing Kenny Golloday is also huge as he is a legit number one receiver when healthy. He is the guy that Jones can throw the 50/50 ball to.  Almost as importantly, this pushes Shepard to a number 2 and Slayton to a number 3-roles they should both excel at. The drafting of Kadarius Toney could also bring an exciting element to the offense if Jason Garrett can figure out how to use him.  He missed most of the pre-season with a variety of things, but he will make some explosive plays over the course of the year.

Even with Evan Engram out with a calf injury to start the season I am hopeful that Kyle Rudolph and Kaden Smith bring a combination of run blocking and solid receiving to the tight end position.

It would have been hard for any QB in the league to have a good year with a bad offensive line and no weapons. The line is not much better with the only real improvement expected as a result of what typically happens in the NFL when rookies move to season 2, especially when the rookies missed their preseason due to COVID schedule last year; but the improvement in weaponry, led by Barkley and Galloday should be huge for Jones. With all of these weapons and a very good defense, it’s hard to see how they don’t move up to a #20ish offense.  If they can do that, they should be fighting for playoff spot down to the end of the season.

I know consensus has the Giants at 7 wins.  I’m materially more bullish than they are.  I was tempted to say 10 wins given all the addition.  I think they are being overlooked and an 11-win seasons wouldn’t even shock me. The Giants might sneak up on people this year. However, when you realize that the Redskins have a top defense and improved their offense by having a now decent QB in Fitzpatrick, and that Dallas went from being decimated by injuries to getting back their offensive line and Prescott, the improvement in the division makes me reluctant to call for 10 wins.  As such I’m reluctantly settling on a 9-8 prediction but would not be surprised if they really outperform.  

​-Ari Glass