The Giants looked horrific in losing to the Cowboys 20-13.  If possible, the Giants offensive line got worse than last year (but at a higher cost). People are killing Manning for his ineptness, but the reality is that almost no one can pass behind that line. Certainly, a more mobile quarterback could buy more time (like Sam Darnold).

Barkley is an interesting case.  He set a Giant record with 14 catches, but all dump offs that went nowhere. He got nowhere on the ground. Despite these facts, amazingly I thought he was fantastic. I’ve never seen a back break so many tackles and make so many guys miss. It speaks to just how bad the line is and it also speaks to the fact that the line is so important in the success of a running back that running backs just don’t deserve to be valued that highly. There is a reason I didn’t think the Giants should take Barkley, no matter how talented he is.

If this was a game, or even a season that was looking bad, it would be sad but manageable.  Unfortunately, I think the future for the Giants is bleak. The GM (Gettleman) has made so many errors that will cost them for many years to come. It wasn’t just not drafting Darnold which they will regret for years. They should not have given up JPP, or DRC (or Bert Jones who is now needed at Center), or signed Ogletree (the Rams would have given him up for less than nothing as he is no longer a plus player).  Solder at $17m is overpaid.  The worst crime may have been Jon Stewart, a washed up running back that they would not have needed even if it was a few years ago. He is similarly talented to Justin Pugh but at a much higher price. You can get any player you want if you are willing to massively overpay but with a salary cap it means you are sacrificing other areas. Omameh is useless. He is not an upgrade over John Jerry but also at a much higher price. The biggest problem with these signings is that the structure of signing bonuses getting accrued over the life means you really can’t cut the players who don’t perform without a substantial cap hit until the end of the contract.
 
Looking for bright spots:
Granted the Jags and Cowboys are not good passing teams, but the overall Giant defense held up in each game. Take away an early game slip by Jenkins on a long touchdown and the Giant defense held both teams in check despite not having their best player available in Olivier Vernon.  The difference between having one good pass rusher and none is huge.  The defense will get better with his return.  Certainly, a smart coach like Shurmur will make some adjustments on offense but this is not going to be a playoff team.  Its hard to believe that they won’t figure out something to make them a little better.  Most of the problem is lack of skills, but they also piled on by not knowing how to pick up stunts.

Another attempt at Optimism:
Why the Giants passing on a QB in this year’s draft could pan out. Quarterbacks are far and away the highest priced players on the field.  They should be as their performance is the single highest determinant of success.  As a result, even the 29th best quarterback (in a 30 team league) gets paid well as you need to have a quality starter.

Unlike other positions such as receiver and lineman, teams really only play one quarterback. As a result, they won’t pay much for a second quarterback.  While the QBs in the league are not all great, it could be a unique time next season where there are no teams looking to draft a quarterback.

Think about it. The only teams without decent quarterback play are teams that recently drafted and committed to young QBs and won’t give up on that very soon. The Cards took Rosen, the Bills, Allen.  While some teams with older QBs will look to the future, they won’t trade up to get that done.
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Additionally, even not counting guys like Fitzpatrick, Bradford or McNown, who are quality starters (and at this point of similar talent to Manning), guys like McCarron and Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor are out there and won’t have starting jobs next year unless signed by a new team as a free agent. Simply put, the talent difference between the 20th best quarterback and the 30th best (including next year’s draft picks) will not be that large. The difference is that the free agent value of the 15th best will be $22m per year, while the 30th best could be had for $7-10m, or the price of the draft pick to sign next year’s top rookie QBs will be much less expensive than normal. It may be a very good time to be looking for a new QB next year. There is no way this went into Gettleman’s thinking and even if it did they should have drafted Bradley Chubb, but this may be stroke of luck that works out well.
 
 -Ari Glass
 
 
 
 

Many are buying into the hype. The Giants drafted Saquon Barkley, the running back “touched by the hand of G-d.” according to GM Dave Gettleman. I agree Barkley is a tremendous talent but is he enough to make this team that much better?

As those who read my draft preview and review are aware, I do not believe that there is enough positional value at the running back position to take a running back that high. I offered some statistical proof in the draft preview. This is not fantasy football where the running back matters more than anything. In the real NFL the value variance between a good running back and an average one is just not that high. Much of the running efficiency is predicated on the work of the offensive line and independent of the actual running back, but running efficiency is not super high in terms of predictive outcome of a victory.

The biggest problem the Giants have is that they picked on old GM who is just not that familiar with advanced statistical metrics. In baseball, much of the statistics are more easily measurable and as a result were more widely implemented in the years following the release of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball.

The Oakland A’s who had first implemented the advanced statistical component of player evaluation outperformed their payrolls expectancy for years until release of the book. Within a couple of years of the release of the book, much of their edge was gone and their limited payroll impacted them more. In football, the stats are not always as easy to decipher and Gettleman doesn’t get it.  This does not bode well for the future of the franchise.

I’ve disagreed with most of what he has done since taking over. Not only do I think they should have taken Darnold with the first pick, everything they did in free agency and with trades and cutting players has been wrong. JPP was not worth the contract he had received but once the bonus was paid in year one, there was no point in trading him away. The unamortized portion of the bonus hit the Giants anyway. The remaining amount was not above his value. More importantly, this is a player who was actually made for a 3-4 defense more than a 4-3 defense. He would have been great. Also in the NFL today there are effectively 3 starting cornerbacks. DRC was still a very effective player and cutting him made no sense. They now have a whole at the 3rd cornerback (although I think the diminutive Donte Deayon is underrated and could make a real contribution). Ogletree was a poor pick up. The Rams were very happy to get rid of him and Football outsiders had him very poorly rated. Watching him trying to cover tight ends and running backs in the preseason was painful.

He over paid for Nate Solder. It may have been a necessity to get someone there but ultimately it can’t be at any cost. Solder has the highest contract at that position in the league and he is just a B+ talent.   Will Hernandez was actually a good pick and will contribute at guard, but signing Patrick Omameh was a bad signing. It was not as bad as signing Jonathan Stewart. He will make nearly $4m this year. He is 31 years old and should be out of the league.  He has not been effective in this league for 2 years. He should not have made the team but they didn’t want to embarrass the GM by cutting him.  He is going to be the 3rd string running back, meaning he won’t play much at all. If you add his compensation to what Omameh makes and you could have had Justin Pugh back. Pugh was their one very good lineman and should not be guilty by association. I’d like this line much better if he was there.
 
Trading away Brett Jones for a 7th rounder also made no sense. Having a GM that doesn’t understand positional value or the impact on the salary cap of decisions is worrisome.  He also over-values his own former players and signing Panther players to protect the legacy of his old decisions is a big problem.

Having said that, there are reasons this season won’t be a disaster. Firstly, even though I don’t think Barkley over Darnold was the smart pick, Barkley should add more value this year. Running backs have their highest value right away while Quarterbacks tend to improve over the course of their first few years as they learn the league. It’s because the running back position is 90% physical, while the QB position is at least 50% non-physical skills (as Peyton Manning really showed with the Broncos).

I’m not a believer that the Giants offensive line is much better than it was, but it is a little bit better. The RB position is improved but the biggest improvement will come from the return of OBJ. There is no question that with him back the entire game changes. Engram as a third option instead of one could be great, and Shepard is in line for an excellent season. 

On defense, the Giants will be very good at stopping the run.  Snacks Harrison is the best there is at stopping the run and Tomlinson is really solid too. The problem will be that they don’t have any pass rush. Olivier Vernon will have a good year and get his first double-digit sack year but there is not much after him and he is out week one with an ankle injury. If not for that, I liked the Giants match up against the Jags as they can shut down the Jags run game and Bortles doesn’t scare me. But with no Vernon and no third cornerback it could be tough to stop them. Ramsey could make Beckham much less effective.  He is one of the few CBs in the league that can play him one on one which changes the entire dynamic.  (First game prediction Jags 20-17).

While hoping I’m wrong, I see the Giants coming in at 7-9. If a few things break the right way the upside is 9-7 which in some seasons sneaks you into the playoffs, but there is a higher likelihood of 5-11, which could at least set them up to take a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.

-Ari Glass