As expected the Giants looked awful last night.  Their offense could not run or pass the ball.  Eli once again did not take care of the ball.  Mostly the offensive line got pushed around making it impossible to do much on offense.   On paper the defense didn’t do much better, but I have more confidence in the defense.  The Giants did a nice job of shutting down the run, and many of the successful Lions pass plays were on broken plays when a scrambling Stafford found a late breaking receiver. 

While they really miss Will Hill, there is still hope for the defense.  The pass rush needs to improve.  To that point I found it shocking that Damontre Moore got so little playing time.  It was like he was put in the dog house after the first quarter.  I wonder if there is a story behind that.  JPP played the run well, but didn’t get much of a pass rush. He just doesn’t have that same burst from a couple of years ago. On another note his hypochondriac thing is getting old. He goes down to the ground waiting for the medical trainers once a game.  Jon Hankins played well, as expected, and Rolle was all over the place.  Jacquian Williams didn’t impress, and neither did McClain.  I wonder if Paysinger may be better than Williams (I’d give it another game or two), and would love to see the rookie Kennard take over for McClain.

While Andre Williams didn’t fare too well, he didn’t have much of an opportunity.  He did blow one play where he was supposed to run into the flat for a pass and he stayed too close to the middle, forcing Manning to throw it away.  Still, Jennings was the very definition of mediocrity and Williams needs to get more playing time.  His potential is meaningfully higher.  In general, it is obvious this is not a playoff team, and the Giants should not wait any longer.  They need to start playing the younger guys now.

The Giants have had a horrific pre-season.  Their 5-0 record was deceiving as the starters continually got destroyed.  The offense in particular was non-existent as was the pass rush on defense. 

Since the pre-season started, they lost their best athlete on offense (David Wilson to injury /retirement), their best athlete on defense (Will Hill – drug related, cut), their top offensive signee to short term injury (Geoff Schwartz), their expected comeback player of the year (Chris Snee to injury / retirement), their #1 Draft Pick (Odell Beckham) has not been healthy, and their former # 1 receiver Hakeem Nicks looked dominant against the Giants in a pre-season game.  Ironically, this new faster paced offense, where you get the ball to a receiver short and let him run after the catch, would have been a great for his skills. The offensive line, a liability last year, may actually be worse.  It’s hard to be optimistic about this team.

Having said that, here is what could go right: 

Andre Williams looks legit.  I know they brought in Jennings as their “Bell cow” but I am hoping /expecting Williams to be their feature back by the end of the year.  On defense, Damontre Moore continues to show progress, and I can see him being a dominant lineman.  If those two are allowed to contribute, it could help significantly.  Beason is coming back from his pre-season injury shoring up the defense.  Much is then riding on JPP becoming anything close to his 2011 form.  He didn’t show much in preseason, but his opportunities were limited and he claims to be fully healthy (and in a contract year).  The pass defense looks improved with good secondary signees.

Overall, I expect the defense to be above average and the offense to be bad.  It could get better as the season goes on as they learn the offense and Schwartz comes back from injury, but a year from now we will be reading about whether the Giants should be keeping Manning and if so at what price.  There is no way he gets another $20m a year contract.

Prediction: 6-10

I was thinking it was an 8-8 team prior to the pre-season.  As mentioned above, much went wrong.
Some of it permanent, and some just surprised me (how bad Manning has looked).

This is a 4-12 quality team with a very easy schedule, so they will win 6 games.

The season is coming.  The Giants are still undefeated, so optimism reigns supreme.  Everyone seems to look good (amazing how defense and offense can both look good going up against each other).  Every rookie will be an All-Pro even though they haven’t hit anyone yet or been hit.  Of course, this is before graduating to dominating against 3rd stringers likely to be cut.

Given all of that, here is my take:

The Giants did address many of their issues in free agency.  The line was the biggest and Schwartz was an excellent signing as a guard.  Snee going down is not good but between the rookie Richburg, and Mosley you hope they find an adequate replacement.  Walton should also be an upgrade over an injured Baas.

This will help their anemic running game.

The biggest issues facing the Giants this year will be:
Manning, the offensive line, tight end the pass rush (JPP in particular), new offensive system

JPP - last year he was the Adrian Robinson of defensive ends.  The good news is that he has declared himself 110% healthy.  Since last year he at some point declared himself 100% healthy, so we can expect a 10% improvement in his performance.

Manning – it’s hard to know how much was throwing behind a crumbling line which would hurt every quarterback, or age catching up to him. It’s doubtful he lost his mental edge and ability. There were times however when his arm strength didn’t appear to be what it had been.  A good way to recognize this is on Hail Mary’s, where he came up short.  It could be that age is catching up with him at 33.  He is not as blessed as brother Peyton to make up for it with guile.  He will be helped by both a combination of a better line and by a better running game.  I’m actually bullish on the trio of running backs they have now.  Jennings is solid, Wilson potentially exciting, and Williams looks like he could be a stud who slipped to round 4 because nobody believes in drafting RBs anymore.  The real question will be their ability to pick up and fit their skills into the new offensive system.  Former OC Gilbride is killed by fans, but his offense did win two Super Bowls.

I do believe one of the tight ends will step up this year and Robinson is the most likely to do so.  He has the tools and guys tend to mature and learn how to play in the NFL over a couple of years.  He may never be the JPP of tight ends, but he could be a Kevin Boss quality.  Larry Donnell interests me as well, and is an intriguing athlete.  As far as the veterans, if they would have made something special of themselves, it already would have happened.

The Giants draft 12th in this week’s 2014 draft.  Coming off of a 7-9 season they need all the help they can get.  As discussed in prior post, we think they did much to address most of the areas of real need in free agency.  The only screaming and obvious need not addressed was tight end, a position that the Giants have not recently emphasized.

That deficiency is why many have mocked Eric Ebron to the Giants.  He is a fast Tight End, with questionable blocking skills that has been compared to Niners tight end, Vernon Davis.  Recently, there has been talk of him slipping in the middle to late part of the first round, potentially to the Jets.

If they were truly going for the best available player it is possible that Taylor Lewan, the Michigan State.  He is a beast of an OT.  The Giants made a big mistake by giving Will Beatty a big long term contact a year ago that may force them to live with him, but it’s hard to pass up a guy who could protect the QBs backside for 10 years.  The safest pick may be Notre Dame Tackle, Zack Martin.  He is known to be able to play almost anywhere on the line.  The Giants, on paper, head into the season with each starters position nominally adequate, but with real potential question marks still at center (will Walton comeback strong after 2 years away), RG –will Snee be healthy and back to anything close to his 2012 form, and LT –will Beatty recover from a bad injury and an even worse 2013 season.  Martin could really provide insurance at all 3 positions.  He is not as talented as Lewan, but his adaptability is helpful. 

The Giants are loaded at quality #2 receivers with Cruz and Randle (who would likely be a late first rounder if he came out now).  Therefore, unless you can get Mike Evans, it makes no sense to get the slightly under elite status receivers that will be available when the Giants pick.  Most think Evans will be gone to Tampa bay at number 7, but if he is available he needs to be considered.  The last option for the Giants is Aaron Donald.  People mention that Joseph left and needs to be replaced.  That is incorrect.  As the big run stuffer, Jon Hankins was brought in last year in the second round and will take that spot.  Donald is a beast and a phenomenal athlete, but the criticism on him is his size (285 lbs).  The truth is he would be the eventual replacement for Cullen Jenkins and would team very nicely with Jonathan Hankins.

Much of the Giants draft situation will be dictated by whether any quarterbacks are taken early in the draft.  They are plentiful and teams think they can get them later in the round, so they may slip.  My best case scenario is a couple of quarterbacks being taken early and good players falling to the Giants.  It seems unlikely.  A dream scenario may be a few available and the Giants drafting Donald and then turning around and trading him to the Bears for their first rounder (14th overall), and collecting significant compensation for that.  Everyone seems to know the Bears would love to add Donald.

The Giants have received mixed reviews with respect to their activity in Free Agency.  I am more bullish on their major signings, less so on their lesser signings.  Their three biggest needs entering the offseason were Offensive Guard, Tight End and Cornerback.  In 2 out of the 3 they signed the top Free agents on the market in Schwartz, the big guard from Kansas City, and Rogers Cromartie from Denver at Cornerback.  They also addressed their needs in the kick returning game.  However here, like in the cornerback, they signed one too many players.  They didn’t need both Demps and Holliday.  They are redundant and they likely would not have gone that way if they knew what was coming after.  They made the same error at cornerback where they signed Thurmond and McBride before signing Rogers Cromartie.  Nobody pays north of $2m per year for what will be a 4th cornerback (McBride).   That turned out to be a bit of a waste. Additionally, Hosley could have easily held down the 4th cornerback spot. 

Regarding tight end, it seems they believe they will be able to draft Ebron with the 12th pick in the draft.  It seems to be a perfect intersection of value and need that should fall to them in this May’s draft.  Losing the versatile Kevin Boothe who would have made an adequate backup at the various line positions hurts.  He would have given some level of comfort regarding the risk at some other parts of the line.  If Snee comes back close to what he had been pre-injury and William Beatty recovers from injury and poor play, they could actually have a sold line.  They could turn a weakness into a strength.  Not many quarterbacks or running backs look good when they are not getting acceptable blocking.

The decision made on Justin Tuck was the correct one.  He had a bit of a bounce back year but it’s unlikely for someone at that age to get better.  Despite improving from horrific 2011-2012 campaigns, his stats were a bit misleading as he got half his stats in only a couple of games.  He is no longer a difference maker and it was wise to move on and not remotely match the absurd offer from the Raiders.  He was a great Giant and we wish him well.  The Giants will need a bounce back year from a now presumably healthy JPP as well as a big jump in caliber of play from Damontre Moore.  If they get that, the line will be ok.  Regarding Linval Joseph, he is a loss, but one that was anticipated in the prior year’s draft with taking Jonathan Hawkins in the second round.  They did the same thing when they took Joseph with expectation he would replace Cofield a few years back.    Neither will sack the quarterback much but both are strong on the point of attack.  The Giants then re-signed Patterson who had a strong first half of the year but not a great second half.  Kuhn coming back will be helpful.  He showed good promise as a rookie –enough to be part of a solid DT rotation.

When you replace a weak spot in the lineup with a strong one, it materially changes the team. You are only as good as your weakest link, so these upgrades will be substantially helpful. I’m still a little worried about the offensive line. It could go very well, but it has too many question marks.  Will Beatty come back healthy and in 2012 form?  Does Snee still have anything left in the tank?  Is Walton, the center signed from Denver who hasn’t played in almost 2 years ready to come back healthy?  The answer to all could be yes, but if it’s not there could still be weakness without great depth.  It’s one of the reasons I could actually see them drafting Zack Martin from Notre Dame.  I’ll put out a draft preview later this week, but he would offer insurance all across the line.  The insurance is needed.  I don’t like giving up best talent for insurance but it could be necessary. 

Some second tier free agents can still be signed after the draft.  If the Giants don’t draft Eric Ebron at tight end, I can see them signing ex-Packer Finley to man the position.

The Giants have now won 4 straight games.  Not many saw this coming when they started 0-6.  Truthfully they were not always as bad as their record (but sometimes were), but are not as good as 4-0 would dictate either. They had played decently against the Chiefs, Eagles (first time) and Bears, and really could have won those with a few breaks, and haven’t played that well the past 4 weeks, when considering the quality of quarterback they have played. 

There have been some material changes to the lineup.  The biggest is the addition of Andre Brown.  Brown is more than a competent back mixing strength and speed.  The reason his impact is felt so materially is that once Wilson went down, the group of stiffs left playing at the running back position was horrific.  Consequently, on a relative basis, going from guys picked up off of couches, to a guy who can get through holes and generate yards after the first hit has massively changed their game because having a running game opens up the passing game. It’s hard to pass in this league if defenses’ don’t have to play the run. 

On defense, a couple of differences have taken place.  Firstly, as column readers know I have been a huge Will Hill fan since I first saw his athleticism in training camp two years ago.  He was out for the first 4 games and the whole defense has played better since he got back.  Secondly, the addition of Beason through trade does something similar to what Brown does for the offense.  Beason is clearly not the player he was at his pro bowl year peak, but the difference between him and Herzlich is so startling that it improves the defense tremendously.  Herzlich is a great story but there was a reason he was not drafted.  JPP who has been bad most of the year seems to be getting a little healthier.  While his game making interception against the Packers was phenomenal, it should not convince anyone he is fully back to 2011 levels.  He is not, but he has been getting better this week.  I’m still very frustrated that Damontre Moore doesn’t get more playing time.  This is how I felt with Hill his rookie year.  It is so obvious that he will add material value but Coughlin just doesn’t seem to trust youngsters. 

This week’s game against the Cowboys will truly be a challenge.  I think the Giants will be up for it, but I am also afraid of them getting exposed.  I do feel a lot better about the fact that their middle linebacker Lee is out with an injury.  He is one of the games’ much underrated players and he personally has shut down the Giants running game in the past.  I would not feel confident if he was there but given his absence I am predicting a 24-20 win.

My friends have so associated me with my New York Giants fandom that I have received many of those “how are you doing?” questions.  It’s almost as if they believe I have lost a loved one.  I’ll tell you how I am doing.  I’m doing ok.  I have learned to be philosophical about these things and put them into their proper perspective.  It’s one year.  It’s just one year.  Between salary caps and the draft parity is high in the NFL.  Nothing is permanent.  The Giants have many pieces, and lack many others.  However, they are set up for a decent salary cap situation that can get even better if they are lucky enough to have Snee retire.

The Giants lost to the Bears on Thursday night in their first competitive game in a long time. That could speak more to the Bears, but there were positive signs. For the first time this year the Giants had a 100 yard rusher and even more impressively continually opened holes in the Bears defense.  If David Wilson (injured) had ever received those holes he would not be spoken of as a bust right now.  It’s possible that I could meet Brandon Jacobs in a 40 yard dash so for him to gain 100 yards is something.  Eli also had decent time to throw.  He did mess up again with 3 interceptions. One was clearly Randall’s fault, and the last one was inches away from a play that would have put them in scoring and winning range. 

On defense, the injuries in the secondary showed.  They need back at least one from the Webster / Hosley crew.  Ross is gone and not coming back.  The biggest problem remains the lack of a pass rush.  Any quarterback can pick apart a defense with time. The Giants over the course of a couple of years have gone from great to horrible on this front.  It seems they are heading on a path that would net them Clowney in next year’s draft, and that may be what they need.  Promising rookie Damontre Moore has been injured and presumably not healthy enough for real playing time.  It will be interesting to see what he is capable of when fully healthy.  I don’t know at this point if you can ever expect JPP to be JPP again.  On a positive note, the Giants run defense is actually very good.  For many weeks in a row good runners have not had an impact running the ball against the Giants.  Rookie second rounder Johnathan Hankins showed something.

The Giants traded for Carolina’s Beason a couple of weeks ago, and he led them in tackles this past week.  He looked impressive for a guy who was benched for the familiar and mediocre Chase Blackburn.  He was a great linebacker a few years back before injuries took their toll.

In general, despite still only being 3 games back in the division, and capable of some run, the Giants would be wise to play the young guys and figure out exactly what they have.  Coughlin has enough tenure to be able to do that without fearing ramifications of win loss effect.  The problem is he has always been trained to think only about the next game and given the current situation, it’s important for the organization to start thinking about next year.  One of the Mara’s should get involved and tell him specifically not to worry about this year’s record at this point.  It’s not in his DNA to not try his best to win each game, but that is in the organizations’ best interest. 

The Vikings should be a decent match up for the Giants.  Since the Giants have been good at stopping the run and the Vikings have not done a great job in the passing game, this could prove to be the match up the Giants need to get off the schneid. I’m expecting the Giants to actually win a game. Look for a 24-20 victory.

Is it too early to analyze the top of the 2014 draft?  Even being only 2 games out, that is all the Giants can realistically think about at this time.  The Giants looked good for a little while there.  The opening drive was impressive, as were the back to back drives in the 3rd quarter that put them ahead.  But then the turnover monster struck yet again.  At some point it’s not just the bounce of the ball. 

On a positive note (I have to), Will Hill’s comeback from drug suspension and was all over the field.  He does have the ability to be an impact player.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t rush the passer and that is the real weakness of the team.  JPP showed a little –which is more than he had for a while, but still not enough.  Kiwi and Tuck are over the hill.  It makes no sense to me that at this point Damontre Moore isn’t getting the major reps at DE.  They were forced to play Hankins and he played well. Perhaps well enough to ensure that Linval Joseph’s sure to be large contract demands, at the end of this year, will not be met.  A Secondary can cover only for so long.  The run defense has actually been pretty decent this year.  The pass rush just can’t get anywhere near the passer. 

On offense, the running game is just nonexistent.  David Wilson hurt his neck and didn’t return, though they claim it was largely precautionary and he should be good Thursday against Chicago.  With no realistic chance to make the playoffs, it’s time to really see what the next generation can do.  Adrian Robinson and Donnell should get real shots at tight end.  Play Hosley (when healthy) at CB.  Rolle, Webster, Tuck, Diehl, Joseph and most of the linebacking staff will not be back.  Stop playing them.  6-10 is not really better than 4-12, while giving experience to the youngsters. 

Coughlin has done a good job in his Giants career and I think that 2 Superbowl victories earn him the right to retire when he wants.  Today was about his worst game as a coach. He made glaring judgment errors that cost them.  He accepted a penalty that should have been declined, allowing a Vick run on the next play that led to a score.  Then he called a time out right before he challenged a play, wasting an extra time out.  Both were mistakes a coach of this experience should not make.  The latter was very costly, because it didn’t allow them to challenge calls later in the game because they had no challenges left.   

They play the Bears on Thursday.  The Bears are a good home team.  They lost to the Saints but the Saints are back to being the pre-bounty suspension Saints.  The Bears are not great but Cutler and Trestman seem to have something going on there.  The only redeeming sports item for many Giants fans right now is that the Knicks, as of this writing are still undefeated and will allow many of us to fool ourselves into believing that they can go somewhere this year.  When you know you are at least a year away from seeing a meaningful Giants football game, it’s about all you can root for.

The Giants put up one of their most embarrassing efforts in years in losing to Carolina. Coughlin said it best when he said they were "manhandled".  I usually try to find some positives, but it was tough.  What a difference a year makes.  A year ago the Giants beat the same Panthers team and were listed at #1 in most power rankings.  It’s only been downhill since.  I have not envied Jet fans in many years.  This is a sad day.

The offensive line was atrocious.  It wasn't a play here or there. It was everything. If Beatty had this game last year it would have cost him a few million dollars a year on his new contract.  You hope it was just a bad day and he will recover.  Perhaps it was just a bad match up.  The defense didn't seem as bad as the score would indicate, but you are what the numbers say you are.  If you want any positive, it’s that if you add back 2 runs called back by penalties, David Wilson had a decent day.  It was tough to see Bradshaw run for almost 100 yards against a great Niners defense, while the Giants can’t run at all.  At 0-3 the playoff chances are withering away.  This is more what a 5-11 team looks like.  It could really roll downhill from here.

Something is not right with JPP.  It’s hard to explain.  He is too young to have lost so much and he is supposedly healthy.  At this point, I see no reason not to give Damontre Moore a shot.  The secondary is actually playing well.  Aaron Ross in particular looked good in Webster’s absence and could take playing time away from him.  But with no pass rush there is a limit to what you can do.  Unfortunately this happens sometimes in pro-sports.  Teams just get old - all at the same time.  I didn't think the Giants would be great, but I didn't see this coming.  

The Giants looked sloppy and generally not ready to start the NFL season before turning it on some time during the second half. Ultimately 6 turnovers were too much to overcome and they lost to the Cowboys.  It was a disappointing loss in a winnable game that will come back to haunt them.

The game had its positive moments.

The much maligned defensive backfield performed reasonably well in coverage.  Eli threw for 450 yards with Nicks, Cruz and Randle all exceeding 100 yards, the first time in team history that was accomplished.  

The big story for the Giants was the fumbling of David Wilson. His 2 early fumbles set the tone for the game and more importantly caused Coughlin to lose confidence in the back and completely bench him for the rest if the game. If the Giants are going to be a competitive team they will need a 1,100+ yard season from Wilson. They can't give up on him.

After the game, I correctly predicted that Tiki Barber, who overcame his own fumbles earlier in his career, would reach out to Wilson in his continued efforts to get back in good graces with the fans.  JPP played, but was completely ineffective.  He gets a pass for his first game back, but the pass rush was horrific and Peyton will destroy that, if given that kind of time. The run defense held up well with all the "big butts" brought in on the line (but don't underestimate the help of not having Osi in there on running plays). I had thought that a better run defense would allow the line to tee off on passing downs bringing back the once feared pass rush.  It was just non-existent. The only hope is that some combination of Damontre Moore and a healthier JPP can turn that around.

Brandon Jacobs was brought in as an additional back, but don't expect much from him as he was too slow last time he was here in 2011. Don't underestimate what a returning David Baas can mean for the running game and pass protection. Brewer proved he was not really ready for prime time.

The Broncos are the class of the AFC and are the better team, but the Giants have a good punchers chance if they can win the turnover battle.  If they turn the ball over again like last week it could get ugly.