The pre-season, as meaningless as it usually is, was certainly an interesting one.  It helped to answer some questions that had been lingering since the draft and free agency period.  Last year, the Giants offense played reasonably well despite poor line play and defense was horrific primarily because of poor line play.

The Giants chose to materially address their defensive line and did not do anything to address their offensive line.
Both of these decisions have shown up in their pre-season production.  The Giants starting defense was borderline dominant in the pre-season.

Olivier Vernon at age 25, their big free agent acquisition, looks to be coming into his prime and could have a huge year, both against the run and the pass.

Hankins looks back to pre-injury form, and a healthier (but still impaired JPP) looks to be back to something in between his pre-injury and post injury levels.  Even his post injury self, last year was better than the headline number (1 sack) would indicate.  Lastly Damon “Snacks” Harrison is an elite run stuffer which will help both against the run and the pass (when 3rd and 3 becomes 3rd and 7). 

The cornerbacks are good and with rookie Eli Apple are legitimately 3 deep, despite the fact that drafting him so high was a mistake.  The safeties should be much better for a few reasons.  Collins, should make a leap in year 2 as his know-how catches up with his physical abilities. He should also really benefit from playing the strong safety position near the line as opposed to the miscast free safety he was forced to play last year.  3rd round pick Darian Thompson looks like a winner at the free safety, and Nat Berhe rotating in after coming back healthy from a missed 2015 will add to the mix.

Offensively the Giants are feeling the mistake of not drafting Laremy Tunsil over Eli Apple.  They are desperate for help on that line.  Newhouse and Jerry are not starter quality and Flowers has not been able to add technique to good physical skills.  Pugh and Wesburg are very good but not enough to make a line.  There is hope that the act of desperation in bringing back Will Beatty gets the Giants improved to a level of mediocrity at right tackle, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to get on the field since 2014 and just got signed too recently to even start in game 1.  In the pre-season the line looked even worse than last year.  They couldn’t block at all and Rashad Jennings actually had more negative than positive runs, a feat hard to accomplish.

The good news is that the Eli is still Eli in an offense that was made for his skills.  He had a great year last year and that was with only one wide receiver to throw to.  OBJ will be great again and that will draw attention away from impressive rookie 2nd round pick Sterling who I expect to have close to 70 catches for close to 900 yards.  I’m not a believer that Victor Cruz has anything left to offer but I hope I’m wrong.  If I am right, the Giants to have some young guys who impressed in camp and preseason and won jobs and could add value at the receiver position.  A quality second reviver though could really improve the offense. 

That is why despite a below average running game, the Giant’s will eventually learn to use short passes as a running game substitute and move the ball enough to compensate for the poor offensive line play.

When the preseason began I was very bullish and expecting a 10-win team.  When I watched the preseason incompetence, I was down to 8 wins.  Then I realized, that the defense will be good, and the offense was trying to accomplish certain specific goals rather than necessarily trying to win the football game, and that they will do what they need to do in the actual season to score 24 points a game.  Then, when the Football gods injured Tony Romo and traded away Sam Bradford, the expected value went up by almost 1.5 wins and I am now predicting a 10 win season and a visit to the playoffs.  I think I’m being objective and saying it as an analyst rather than a hopeful fan.  The only reason I believe I am is that we have been accurate and not bullish for 2 years running.  It’s been a long off-season and I’m looking forward to finally watching some Giants football.

Go Giants!

​-Ari Glass

Draft Review
 
Overall grade: B
 
This easily could have been an A-.  After round 1 they did pretty well.  They got players later than many predicted they would go and generally in positons of need.  Matching value and need is what makes a good draft.
 
However to do well you need to be flexible enough to move up or down if need and value are not matching.
 
The Tunsil fall caught them of guard.  They were certain that either Conklin or Floyd would still be there and they were both value /need guys.  The Myles Jack fall was anticipated by many but also worked against them.
 
Both Tunsil and Jack were guys that the Giants didn’t feel they could take because they are scarred by their own personal experiences.
 
With Jack they recall the career of Kenny Phillips, the talented but knee injured former Giant first round selection.  With Tunsil they were scarred by column favorite Will Hill, a very talented safety who they ultimately cut after he kept failing drug tests.
 
I would guess at least 25% of these players have smoked pot in college. Tunsil’s crime was getting his phone hacked.
 
The reason I fail them for their round 1 pick is not that they passed on Tunsil –who I do believe will prove to be a great pick for Miami.  They failed because even if they were afraid of another Will Hill situation they should have traded the pick to someone who wasn’t.  They had Apple rated higher than Hargreaves.  Again, most don’t, but ill respect their scouting and evaluation.  But again, if most didn’t he could have been available later.
 
It’s known the Jets offered their number 2 to get up to take the Giants 10th pick to take Tunsil.  It is highly likely that Apple would have been around at 20 –but even if he wasn’t the Giants could have walked away with William Jackson, a cornerback that many had rated higher than Apple and Cody Whitehair, one of the top rated Guards in the draft or linebacker like Deion Jones.  Certainly Whitehair more than makes up for any gap they would think exists between Apple and Jackson.  If they had done that their draft would have been considered to be an A- at least.
 
Apple may turn out to be a good player but nobody had him going that high.  There is the other issue that both of the Giants presumptive choices were known so that teams traded up to the two slots ahead of them.
 
I do like most of what they did with the rest of the draft.  I like the idea of a third receiver and a third cornerback being taken because Jerry Reese is right about one thing.  If you have 2 you are one short.  In today’s NFL 3 effectively start at every position.  The giants’ offense could be potent this year.
Sterling Shepard offers a legit second option and should benefit from attention on Odell Beckham, and if Victor Cruz comes back to anything close to old form defenses will have a tough time keeping up.
Darian Thompson was someone people had projected as high as late in the first round before a bad combine work out and is also a need position.  BJ Goodson could be the key to the draft.  The giants have needed a middle linebacker for years.  He was productive in college and is strong against the run.  He won’t be on the field on passing downs.  Paul Perkins the RB from UCLA also put up great college numbers.  People say he is a bit small but he is only 7-10 pounds less than most others and Jerrell Adams was one of the more highly ranked TEs in the class.  All could wind up contributing this year.  Shepard is the one most likely to be a big contributor. 
 
Having another weapon with OBJ will be big for the offense. Ignoring Reese’s talent evaluation skills, he clearly is ill equipped to run a draft.  How other value talent is important to knowing value.  He has never showed acumen for this.

​-Ari Glass

​Yes, it appears that the Giants materially overpaid to bring talent to their defense.  And they may have However they materially improved their defense.
 
And the numbers they paid may not be as crazy as it seems and as crazy as they have been criticized for ultimately the price of anything is where supply meets demand at a moment in time.
 
The cap going up materially means that teams were flush with cash and since the talent on this year’s market was finite and not bigger than a typical year with was a sellers’ market.
 
Having said that the increased cap and projections for increased cap cause an inflationary effect that will make these contracts look more reasonable.
 
Remember the criticism of the Eli Manning contract extension a couple of years ago.  Now think about that relative to the pricing of a Brock Osweiler or Kirk Cousins and you realize what inflation does to perceptions over a short period of time.  Eli is arguably a bargain now.
 
They are not just spending 2016 dollars.  They are spending 2020 dollars and those dollars will be devalued.
 
In terms of talent, Damon Harris will be a huge upgrade over the horrific DT talent of last year turning a weakness into a strength.
 
Combined with Johnathan Hankins the Giants should have a good run defense.
 
That alone helps the pass defense as it's easier to defend a third and six over a third and three.
 
Combine that with Olivier Vernon massively improving a pass rush and making JPP into a second / complimentary rusher makes a lot of sense.
 
Adding a very good corner in Jenkins which gives the Giants two good covers allows them a much better pass defense.
 
The draft has a few good options at the linebacker spot to take at number 10 to help the line backing crew
 
At safety Collins should improve in year 2 and the free safety which was a bad problem last year can at least be helped with the return of various players who were injured in 2015. Bennett Jackson looked good in pre-season and Nat Berhe looked good in limited time in 2014.
 
The Giants still need to add at least one if not two offense lineman but have the cap space still to do it.

​-Ari Glass
 

The Giants managed to once again snatch defeat from the claws of victory.

The biggest preventable mistake this time was Coughlin electing to go for it on 4th and 2 from the 4 yard line instead of taking the easy field goal, which would have required 2 touchdowns for the Jets to win.  Coughlin stood by his decision after the game which is not surprising as he stood by all his other stupid decisions this year. 

Coughlin has won two Superbowls. He is also organized, a good motivator, decent talent evaluator and had decent overall game plans.  What he is completely incapable of doing is using expected value calculations to help determine the best course of action.  Where this normally manifests itself is with poor clock management.  This time it was this wrong decision.  Ironically, his inability to calculate expected value generally leads him to him not being aggressive enough, particularly down at the goal line.  These were different circumstances.  Their offense was not able to move the ball at all.  Running the football was not a viable option, and the field was tight making it difficult to run real patterns for the receivers.

Manning to Beckham is amazing, and I’d love to see what that looks like with a real offensive line and a legitimate number 2 receiver (who may or may not turn out to be Victor Cruz next year).

Despite the mediocrity of the NFC East, given the remaining schedule it’s hard to see the Giants making it into the playoffs.

The Giants did well in addressing their needs in the 2015 draft.

As we wrote in our preview their 2 primary needs were offensive line and safety.  It was unfortunate that Brandon Scherff was gone by the time of their pick. It left them in position of having to overdraft Flowers.  He was their highest rated lineman but couldn't be the highest rated player.  It would have been good to trade down in the first and still come away with Flowers or a similar talent. If occulting there it was who they needed to go with as no safety was worth drafting there and no defensive lineman would have been a good fit for a 4-3 defense.

They did what they needed to do in the second round to land the best safety in this safety-deprived draft.  Landon Collins will immediately improve their run defense and should be adequate against the pass.  Giving up a 4 and a 7 to get him was a virtual necessity given their depleted safety ranks.

They were then fortunate to fill their next biggest need in the third round by drafting Owamagbe awakens a solid defensive end, who could also make a real contribution as a rookie.

They gave up their 4th in a trade to get Collins and the rest of the draft is unlikely to bring a real contributor.

Getting three real contributors at positions of need makes this a successful draft.

The Giants needs are plentiful going into the draft.  While they could use upgrades at many if not most positions, there are a few needs that if not adequately filled could materially impact the season.

The two biggest needs are at offensive line (either at Guard or Tackle depending on where they put Justin Pugh), and at Safety, where current roster players have no NFL starting experience.

Jerry Reese has a history of not using high picks on the offensive line, and it’s tough to compare the impact expected of a Guard to any top flight receiver but most pundits see the Giants drafting Iowa guard Brandon Scherff.  There are no great safeties in this year’s draft that could justifiably be taken that early on in the draft.  Landon Collins from Alabama represents the best of them but even he shouldn’t go until late in the first round.  If the Giants are fortunate he will slip until they pick in the 2nd round but given the dearth of quality safeties in this year’s draft that is unlikely.

I think 9 is a bit high to take a guard, but I’m not sold on the Giants using the pick on another wide receiver.  There is speculation that Cooper or White could drop to 9 and the Giant’s would be tempted.  For the Giants to have a chance of winning this year, they need to get a return from Victor Cruz along with solid contributions from Randle to supplement the greatness they expect from Beckham Jr. 

Some are calling for Todd Gurley, a special running back talent, but with three decent running backs on the roster and a general league devaluation of running backs, I don’t see them taking a running back in round 1.

My ideal scenario is for the Giants to trade down from the 9 slot, potentially to the Dolphins at 14, where they are certain to have a shot at Schreff, or at least Andrus Peat, La’el Collins or Ereck Flowers.  More likely they stay at 9 and draft a pass rusher.  Long term, it’s not a bad idea given that JPP is on a one year contract and despite my constant predictions (hope), Damontre Moore hasn’t proven anything yet.  I should be more patient, and accept that, but I am rooting for this season, and for this season, that is just not priority. But Reese was trained by the Ernie Accorsi that took Kiwi when they already had Tuck, Osi and Strahan.  They just value that position very highly and one of Beasley, Randy Gregory, Bud Dupree or Shane Ray should be available and at decent value in the 9 hole.  There were some recent rumors of the Browns looking to trade up and they have 12 so that could be an ideal partner for the Giants if the guy the Browns want at 9 is still there, but the Giants are just not from the big draft day traders.

There are a few safeties that look to be available early in the third round, so that is where I would expect them to take a safety (unless Collins or Randle are available in round 2), and if they do take a pass rusher in round 1, there are some quality offensive lineman that should still be there in round 2 (AJ Cann, Laken Tomlinson or TJ Clemmings).

You never know how the board falls out when draft day comes, and I know the Giants preach best player available but I can’t see them not taking an offensive lineman and a safety with 2 of their first 3 picks.  They are usually good for a pass rusher if they can find one and will add a linebacker or other defensive backfield in the later rounds.

Given their depth it actually does not make a lot of sense to use a late round pick on running back or safety but they often do that anyway.

The Giants loss yet another game but this time did it differently than they had this year.  For the most part when they have lost, they have not been close games and it’s mostly been the defense with big struggles.  The defense looked awful early on and got away with field goals on a couple of long drives where they could not seem to stop the Niners. The defense eventually stiffened –largely because SF doesn’t have a good passing quarterback, but the offense managed to shoot itself in the foot.  The run game once again was poor, but it can be attributed at least in part to an injured Pugh being replaced by Brown.  He was horrific. It’s not clear how he is still in the league by how he was manhandled yesterday.  Jennings didn’t have much room to run and was marginally better than Williams had been.  The pass rush was also porous with Brown again the main culprit.   Additionally, every time the Niners ran a stunt Jerry was unable to figure out who to block, causing Manning to rush many throws.  In the few instances he had time he actually performed ok, but in between he threw an embarrassing 5 interceptions.

The one piece of good news is that the receivers showed up to play with both Randle and Beckham performing well.  Beckham is exciting to watch and will push Cruz back to the #2 receiver next year, which is where he thrives.  He only performed well when Hakeem Nicks was drawing the defense’s attention away from him.  Defensively, it may have been the best game from the linebackers, with a shockingly competent performance by Herzlich who was filling in for an injured Jacquian Williams.

The playoffs are not in the picture anymore, so the Giants should do their best to play the young guys.  Next week is interesting.  On the one hand, a Dallas offense should expose the depleted Giants secondary in a way that the Niners could not, but with Pugh coming back and Schwartz expected to make his season debut, this could be the best Giants offense of the season.  Expect a high scoring affair with the Giants falling to the cowboys 34-30.

The Giants are what we thought they were.  They are a mediocre team on pace for a 5-6 win season.  The defense looked apathetic in allowing the Seahawks to run all over them.  Yes, they are a depleted team due to injuries, but that second half was the worst half of football I’ve seen played in a long time.  Amazingly, they hung tough in the first half. They are missing a healthy Beason and even missed Cullen Jenkins, but nothing excuses the performance.  It’s hard to see Perry Fewell surviving with his job next year.  The lack of talent at LB is an issue. CB will be fine next year when the injured return, but safety will be an issue.  The line is perplexing.  I can’t understand why they play Kiwi so much.  He should clearly be behind both Ayers and Moore who still can’t seem to sniff the field.  Moore managed only 3 snaps and actually produced good results on two of them.

Equally as bad is the way Lynch ran over them was the schematic deficiency that allowed Wilson to run around them.  With Kaepernick coming up this week, the Niners game plan is already in place.  The offensive running game is horrific.  I have to admit I was wrong on Williams.  I was high on him and it was a bad call. Despite his strength and speed, he lacks vision.  He misses the holes (though admittedly there aren’t enough of them), so it will be interesting to see what Jennings can do when he returns.  Schwartz should also return soon to replace Jerry on the Offensive line.  Neither of these will help a defense who lost players for the rest of the year.  It’s not clear where defensive improvement will come from.

That is 3 wins in a row.  It wasn’t the prettiest of games, as they fell behind by 10 to a depleted Falcon team, but they pulled out the 10 point win.  There was not one particular played that you could point to and see they played a great game, but there were solid contributions all around. 

Jennings started well and Williams ran well after Jennings got hurt.  Beckham made his debut and showed flashes and of course then proceeded to get overhyped by the NY media.  At least he does look like a viable 3rd receiver option.  They still need the guy they can throw to when he is covered who can make that catch.  That is what Nicks provided until last year’s regression.  Amazingly, the initially beleaguered offensive line continued their excellent play.  Manning has all kinds of time.  The one guy on the line with mediocre play is Jerry who will ultimately get replaced by Schwartz when he comes off the Injured Reserve list after week 8.  Interestingly, after all the press, Larry Donnell was shut out.  They only went to him once or twice. I’d like to think he served a good purpose as a decoy but I couldn’t tell from my vantage point.

Defensively Jacquian Williams finally showed up.  JPP had a bad first half followed by an excellent second half.  Hankins continues to impress at DT.  Demps may be an upgrade over Brown at safety but they badly miss Will Hill.  Hill will undoubtedly get the starting job in Baltimore when he returns from suspension and will do well.  As an aside, speaking of former players who were supposed to contribute this year, watching this offense it is easy to see that David Wilson would have thrived.  Prince Amukamara played another good game, and Rolle has his theories on why.  Lastly, I know this is getting old from this column but they don’t play Damontre Moore enough.  Part of the second half improvement was his greater presence in the lineup.  He either brings pressure, or forces double teams.  They often double-teamed him leaving others to get the pressure.  Herzlich continues to do nothing leaving it as an even greater mystery why they play him over Paysinger.  It hopefully becomes moot this week with the return of either Beason or Kennard.

The Eagles should make for a decent match up.  They have not been playing great ball, but can still be explosive.  The Giants are neither as bad as they looked the first 2 weeks or as good as they did the last 3.  A good defense will still cause their offense troubles and their defensive line still doesn’t benign enough pressure leaving receivers to have big days (this can be alleviated with more Damontre Moore).  The Giants have a real shot in this game but likely keep it close and fall 27-24.

Cardinals 25 - Giants 14

In a word: “Disappointing”.  The Giants are not going to outplay many teams this year, but when they do they can’t lose the game. 

The Giants did themselves in with dropped balls, turnovers, bad special teams, bad penalties and a one-minute sequence where they allowed a long punt return for a touchdown, and then fumbled away the ensuing kickoff.

Trying to be optimistic, Eli Manning showed he was not washed up.  He threw very few bad passes all night and actually had some time to throw.  If not for the drops, his stats would have been very good.  He threw 2 TD passes.  Of his two interceptions, once was meaningless in final seconds and one was a little fluky when it hit a helmet and bounced off. The running game however has still not gotten in shape. 

Even more surprising to this column is that column favorite, rookie Andre Williams has shown very little.  Tight End, thought to be a trouble spot, has been a bright spot with the unexpected development of Larry Donnell.  For the second week in a row he led the team in catches and is quickly becoming a favorite target of Manning.  Cruz on the other hand is being exposed for what he really is, a #2 receiver who thrives when Hakeem Nicks is being double covered, but not when he is in the position of a #1 receiver with attention from the opposing defense.

On defense, Damontre Moore got double the plays, and applied some pressure, but was overwhelmed by the size of the Cardinal LT.  JPP played a great game against the run, and finished with 1.5 sacks.  However his pass pressure is still not back to 2012 levels.  At least one sack was through very good fortune.

Jonathan Hankins was a monster in the middle.  The Cards run game did ok, but it was all on the outside.  Hankins clogs the middle quite well.  The LB play has not been great.  Rookie Devon Kennard needs to get back. Beason got reinjured but was playing great before that.  Paysinger should probably be seeing more playing time. 

The secondary played reasonably well yesterday as well, but did allow too many third and long completions.

Unlike in the Lions game, the Giants looked like an NFL team that could compete at this level.  Next week’s opponent, the Texans, will be interesting, as they look more like the 2012 version than the 2013 version.