2021 Giants Draft Preview

The draft is this Thursday.  I always get excited about the draft.  This year is no different.

My greatest frustration of the Gettlemen era is not that he is a horrific evaluator of talent.  He is decent.  The frustration is that he does not understand basic economic concepts like supply and demand and relative value.  He also does not understand game theory.

This has lead to both free agency mistakes as well as to drafting mistakes.  Saquon is a stud (injuries are more a matter of luck) and is one of my favorite, all time players.  But there is strong math to indicate that a running back – even Jim Brown- should not be drafted 2nd overall.  I’ve written on this extensively so will not do that again here.

Daniel Jones might have been, as he thought, better than most realized (an opinion I probably am in the minority in agreeing with him on), but he would have likely been available at end of the first round and certainty with their second first round pick, which would have allowed the drafting of a good pass rusher too.

Gettlemen still does not understand the basic concept – that winning in the NFL doesn’t happen by paying good players like good players and certainly not paying them like very good or great players but by getting guys to outperform their contracts.  With an approximately $190m of salary cap you probably need $240m of performance.  Far and away the best place to accomplish this is through the draft where players on their first contracts who you hit on will perform at a huge premium to their free agent value.  The top NFL running back will make $15m (and I believe this to be overpaid anyway).  That is less than the 28th best starting NFL QB will get on a free agent contract.

Also, supply and demand should factor in when thinking about free agents. Last year’s draft was full of wide receivers and is deep again this year.  Which means paying Golladay $18m per year made no sense based on who would have likely been available in this year’s draft. They should have paid up for an edge rusher in free agency instead since the crop there -especially where we draft – is quite limited.

That leads us to this year.  4-5 QBs are likely to go before the Giants pick.  I am also assuming that Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase will be long gone by the Giants pick.  IF that is the case the Giants will be left with 2-3 of the following players to choose from.  WR Jaylen Waddle, CB Patrick Surtain (who almost everyone thinks will go to the Cowboys), OT Penei Sewell (who will likely be taken by the Bengals), OT Rashawn Slater, LB Micah Parsons and WR Devonta Smith.

Of those likely to be there, there are rumors that Gettlemen loves Parsons.  I should point out there are no edge rushers that are deemed worthy of this high of a pick, however if the stars aligned and the Giants could trade down (perhaps with the Patriots if a QB they like is still available), I’d be ok trading down and taking a Kwity Paye or Jaelan Phillips if they could pick up a good pick.  If the trade down opportunity does not present itself (and Gettlemen has never done it), while I think Parsons is a stud who could significantly enhance their defense, it’s hard to see almost any MLB worth that high of a high a pick. And Isiah Simmons, a player with similar measurables certainly disappointed in last years draft. 

If Slater or Waddle are available, even if those are not the positions of greatest need, I’d be tempted to take one of them.  Slater has the advantage of being able to play guard or tackle.  The Giants are high on matt peart and have Solder as a swing tackle and insurance but those are both far from sure bets, and each of their projected starting guards are mediocre.

Waddle is just too good of an athlete to pass on even if this moves a good receiver to the bench (likely Slayton).  ID be more in favor of this pick if they could then turn around and trade Slayton for good draft capital but Gettlemen has never showed any skills in pulling something like that off.

Devonta Smith has an amazingly prolific college season but I’m having a tough time seeing a 167 pounder be an NFL Pro Bowler. I can’t recall anyone of that stature having real success at this level in the past 20 years. I can see him dropping.
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Lastly, even though Surtain and Horn seem like great cornerbacks, they have too many dollars already devoted to the secondary and need to resist drafting a third cornerback here. I’d have felt differently if they had not signed Adoree’ Jackson in free agency.

One last comment on free agency.  The Giants certainly upgraded their talent.  However, they overpaid and went for positions they could have filled in the draft.  And all the restructuring of contracts they had to do to accomplish it and the structure of these deals with heavy upfront signing bonuses, means that Giants mortgaged a big part of their future to compete this year. I think it will work in the sense that their talent will be enough upgraded this year to win 9 games, but it was a bad idea in terms of how many future seasons wins it cost them.  The 9-win season we have ahead will probably save Gettlemen’s job -but it shouldn’t and it’s a shame that the Mara’s and Tisch’s can’t see what’s going on.

-Ari Glass