Which Giants team will show up?  The Giants
have alternatively looked dominant (Caroline, SF, Green Bay) and awful, (Cincy,
Pitt).  The Giants, at their best are better than just about anyone else’s
best, giving Giants fans hope that they can run the table in the.  The
Giants were far from dominant in their last minute comeback against the
Redskins last time around. However, the Giants tend to be good at making
adjustments after the game.  Robert Griffin III, is an out of the typical
box player and their running of the option at this level is not what teams
typically see.  Last time they played the Redskins, Eli played very well with the expception of
two big interceptions. Expect Eli to clean that up and to have a big day. 
Expect defensive adjustments to help keep Griffin and Morris and their option
play under control.  Road games are always tougher but the Giants play
well on the road and seem to have figured something out last week.  This
is a huge opportunity for David Wilson, to finally show what he has after
complaining all year abbot his lack of an opportunity.  I’d like to see
the Giants hit him with some screen passes as he can do a lot of damage in the
open field.  A big part of last week’s win was the return to the three
safety look.  This required a healthy Kenny Phillips.  He was
reinjured last week and his status is unknown.   The Giants will pull
this out with another Manning 4th quarter come back and win 24-23.

What a difference some rest makes.  The Giants almost left for dead, after back to back losses to a good
Steelers team (the one that still had Roethlisberger) and a mediocre Bengals
team, are suddenly being talked about as championship material again after their  blowout win over the Packers.
I was admittedly surprised by it as the Packers were playing great football and
the Giants had not looked good for over a month, even in close wins over the Skins and Cowboys. 
I don’t buy into the whole November jinx.  Sometimes events are just coincidental. This was an all-around team
effort, where the Giants jumped on them early.  The crowd was into it from early on despite the first very cold weather game the Giants have played this season.  

Kenny Phillips, returned to the Giants defense and it made a big difference.  I know Stevie Brown
had a number of interceptions in his absence, but the reality is that opposing
tight ends had big games against the Giants’ in Phillips absence.  Also, Phillips size allows them to get away
with a 3 safety look that they liked to play last year with Deon Grant.  That is probably the Giants best unit
(which will be even more improved when Jacquan William’s returns from injury.  At one point Phillips left with a knee injury.  He was slow to get up, but sounded optimistic it was not major and that he would play in the big game the Giants have against the Redskins this coming Monday night.  
 
The Giants have had games before where the end of game rushing stats have looked good but they really only had a couple of games that they consistently got push from the offensive line and looked really good running the ball.  It’s unclear why this was, but if they can figure it out they should bottle it.  Bradshaw looked good
all night running and looked even better on his big screen play on their opening drive.  Brown looked good running the ball as well but broke his fibula.  Ironically some of the fans were chanting for rookie David Wilson to get into the game at that time, since it was a 4 score game in the 4th quarter.  This is not how we would have liked to have seen it happen, but with Brown will probably be out for at least the rest of the regular season. In light of Borwn's absence, Wilson will need to step up. There is talk of signing another running back, but I have always been a big fan of second year player D’arell Scott who should now get into the rotation. 
 
The defense was also surprisingly good.  Nobody shuts down the Packers and the
Giants did that.  Corey Webster had a nice early interception after being beat deep by Nelson on an opening drive
touchdown.  Despite this one play Webster was one Giant who really struggled.  This is no longer an aberration.  Rather it is a worry.  He can now be added to the list that include Osi, Tuck, and perhaps Canty, of 
guys who will probably not be back next year given their salaries versus their contributions.  I’d love to see Will Hill get more playing time.  He seems to do well when he is out there, but it’s not often enough.

It is interesting that since talk started about Victor Cruz’new contract, he has been horrible.  He was one of the league’s top receivers until the contract talk started a few weeks ago and since then has not had a good game.  If the Giants committed to something they may regret it.  If they did not the last few weeks proves that while a good receiver he is not an elite one in the class of Calvin or Andre Johnson or probably even the
next level down.  He should get in the neighborhood of $5-6m a year and not the $9m per that he was probably
looking for.  
 
Cause for concern? 
Eli’s final numbers were good in terms of touch downs, interceptions, and yards, but his completion percentage (16/30), was nothing to be happy about.  It was mostly because of a large number of drops (something that should
be correctable) and because they kept going for the corner end zone fade play to Nicks every time they got down in the red zone.  That play just doesn’t seem to work.  Why don’t they try it with Barden?  That is exactly where you want to use a 6’5 receiver.  

Super storm Sandy and other events have taken the column out for
the past 2 weeks.  We will back in full force next week.  One quick
comment about last game and a quick preview of today’s game against the
  Bengals.  Much has been written about the Giants loss to the
  Steelers.  It was a bad loss and Manning has been in a tough slump. 
  There is much blame to go around for last week’s loss on both sides of the
  football.  One guy who has not been blamed, but was largely at fault is
  Tom Coughlin.  Given his 2 superbowls in 5 years he is considered above
  criticism, in some circles.  It is generally fair but he made one
  egregious error right before the end of the first half that was under
  noticed.  On a third and long with about a minute left in the half from
  the 33 yard line he called a pass play.  It went incomplete, stopping
  the clock.  The Giants attempted and missed a 50 yard field goal,
Pittsburg got the ball back, and drove down the field for a field goal of their
own.  Of course they only need about 40 yards to get into field goal
range.  Coughlin needs to analyze expected value formulas better.
 Firstly, statistically a third and long has a low probability of success
and even if successful the odds of scoring a touchdown were still not super
high.  However, with the Steelers in a prevent defense a 4 yards run on
third and long was easily achievable.  Had he called that play, there was
still a chance of a run turning into a first down (a small chance but a chance)
and more importantly it would take a 50 yard field goal into a likely 46 yarder
or less which probably takes the attempt from a 50/50 proposition to an 85%
likelihood for Tynes. As importantly, the clock would have run down so that in
the case of a make or miss, it would have left very little time for the Steelers
to drive for their own field goal.  That underappreciated decision to pass
the ball resulted in a 6 point swing, one more than the margin of
victory.
 Giants Bengals preview:
The Giants have been playing poor football for a while now. 
They benefited from sloppy play by Dallas early and a fortunate pass to Cruz
late against Washington but both of these games could have gone either
way.  The last 2 matchups in particular were against very solid passing
defenses.  Manning is clearly in a slump but is too good of a quarterback
to stay in one for long.  The Giants are a relatively healthy team with
enough pride to go in and beat a mediocre Bengal team in Cincy.  Expect
Manning to break out of his slump in a big way and for the Giants to make
enough adjustments on defense to hold the Bengals in check.  They will get
their points but not enough to keep up with the Giants.  The Giants will
have success passing going against a poor pass defense and the Giants use the
pass to set up the run.  This will allow the running game to get going as
well.  We are hoping to see David Wilson get some carries.  Watching
the Bucs Martin (chosen one pick ahead of Wilson) explode for a huge day last
week hurts.  The Giants will win this game 31-24 with Manning throwing for
over 300 yards. 

The Giants face the Cowboys in an NFC East battle this week.  It’s a rematch of opening night at Met Life Stadium.  The Cowboys outplayed the Giants in the opener beating them  24-17.  Since then, the two teams have gone in complete opposite directions.  The Giants, have only lost once game since the opener, and that loss was on a missed last second field goal.  Since week 1 the cowboys have really struggled.  More importantly, the Cowboys were healthy in week 1, while the Giants were banged up.  The Giants had some underrated injuries then.  Prince Amukamara, who has been quite solid this season, and we have not had to see much of Michael Coe or Justin Tyron who were the biggest victims of Tony Romo in the home opener.  On the offensive side of the ball, Will Beatty missed the game, leaving David Diehl to try to handle Ware.  David Diehl, was a good Giant but it is obvious that he is over the hill.  This will likely be his last year on the team, unless he takes a substantial pay cut. He could come back as a multipurpose backup lineman., and has a close personal relationship with Eli so that could get him some extra rope.  For Dallas, running back Demarco Murray will miss the game this week.  Previously, the Giants actually held him in the first half, but he exploded for a few big runs in the second half.  The much larger injury for Dallas is linebacker and leading tackler Sean Lee.  He was a beast against the Giants.  The Giants could not run at all against Dallas last time and he was a big reason.  The Giants offensive line is much improved since then.  The Giants happen to play well at Cowboys stadium too.  Health of personnel and overall team momentum will make all the difference.  The Giants will win this game 24-20.

The Giants beat the Redskins on Sunday with a thrilling 77 yard pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz to seal it.  It was a game that introduced RG3 to New York and in some cases a national audience.  RG3 nearly pulled it out for the Skins, the Giants were lucky to walk away from this evenly matched game with a victory.  It’s scary to think he is a rookie, the Giants will have to face him twice a year for the next 12 -15 years.  Eli Manning played what for him was an uncharacteristically sloppy game, with a couple of missed throws and a couple of bad interceptions.  He is such a good quarterback and his standard is so high that it is surprising when he looks like an average NFL quarterback.  OF course he turned into Captain Comeback after the Giants gave up a late 4th quarter touchdown to Moss.
The running game never got going.  It may not have been given a great shot, but it didn’t look very effective when they tried.  Given the edge they should have had in the passing game it was not a bad call to keep passing.  Manning did pass for 330 yards, a number relatively close to our prediction.  After flashing the prior week, David Wilson once again didn’t get a carry with Brown back in the lineup.  The coaches seemingly just don’t trust him in a close game.  It seems all of his carries post week 1, have been when the game was not very close.  Giants fans, and this blog, are clamoring to see more of him.   
Importantly the Giant’s seemed to come out of the game relatively healthy.  Canty came back on a “pitch count” and was active and helped out inside but not enough to stop a vicious Redskin running game.  I’m shocked how much Rocky Bernard is missed for his run stuffing presence.  I do think the bigger issue with the run, was the different nature of the option.  They are not in college anymore and the transition into the NFL will take some getting used to.  The Giants were better against the run in the second half once they “figured out” the scheme.   It could be like the Wildcat, when it is new it takes some getting used to. But then everyone figures out how to play it – probably wishful thinking.  
JPP, Tuck, and Umneyora all recorded sacks.  While Umneyora is certain not to be back next year (and is a major liability against the run) it also clear that Tuck is well past his prime.  He has been a tremendous contributor to the team and is a team leader, but he won’t be earning his contract next year.  Cruz starting talking about a contract extension already and Nicks also hits free agency this year.  They will have to draw the somewhere, and will be forced to make some cuts.  Don’t be shocked to see Tuck and Umenyora gone next year.  I think there is even a chance Canty, who has a big cap number next year, could join them.  The Giants are deep at linebacker, so they can slide Kiwi back to end across from JPP and have Tracey and Ojomo backing up at ends.  Canty is probably safe simply because Marvin Austin has failed to live up to his billing.  In the secondary, Stevie Brown was all over the place and had a big Interception.  Phillips is still missed in run support, but not in the passing game.  With Phillip’s contract coming up, Brown and Hill being cheap options, 2012 could turn into the last year for him as a Giant as well.
I have one bone to pick with Coughlin on play calling.  Facing a third and 1 with a few minutes left and up a few points, it was imperative to keep the clock rolling.  Nobody remembers the paly now because the Giants won, but they went with a back shoulder throw to a still not fully healthy Nicks.  It was incomplete which stopped the clock and turned the ball over to the Redskins who then quickly capitalized.  If they would have ran for a first down there, it likely would have not left the Skins with enough time to score a touchdown even if they only ran 3 more plays.  It was a bad play call that they got away with.  The Giants play the Cowboys next week in an important division match up.  We will have a preview later this week

The Giants play the Redskins on Sunday in a NFC showdown. 
The Redskins are a very different team than their recent pass where they were
excellent defensively but not competent offensively.  With rookie superstar
RG3, they are now a good offensive team, and early season injuries to some of
their better players have severely injured their defense.  They are
especially bad against the pass, which will be a big problem for them this
game.  The NFL is  game of matchups and with a seemingly healthy Nicks
(he has practiced 3 times this week), alongside Cruz and the others, Eli Manning
should have a field day. Expect Manning to throw the ball over the field largely 
nullifying the running abilities of the Redskins behind other star rookie,  Alfred Morris.
Chris Canty seems likely to return, an important piece of the
defensive line, especially against the run, and especially while Rocky Bernard
is still out.  Rotating young players Kuhn and Austin was not a disaster,
but a step down.  With the exception of missing Kenny Phillips, this is a
relatively healthy team.  The Giants running game has been very good as of
late but are going up against a stout Washington run defense.  Expect the
Giants to use the pass to set up the run, allowing Bradshaw, and hopefully
Wilson and Brown to have decent days.  The Giants have fared reasonably
well against mobile quarterbacks this year, I’m sure largely due to their very
athletic front 7.  This game should be no different.  The Giants will jump
out early behind a Manning aerial show and dominate this game.  Expect the
Giants to win 31-17.

The Giants had a very impressive day on Sunday thoroughly beating a team many, including myself,  considered to be the best in the NFL.  The Giants had the better offense , defense, and special teams.  And they really manhandled the Niners, in a true statement game.  This was also one of their best coached games.  They seemed prepared for everything the Niners did.  They also stuck with a run that showed little promise in the first half, and were rewarded with a huge second half by Ahmad Bradshaw.  David Wilson, once again showed some really nice flashes when he was given his limited opportunities.  It’s a real shame the coaches still don’t trust him not to fumble as he really has talent. 

Ironically, Manning had his first sub 200 yard game in a long time, but that was generally because they were playing from ahead most of the time.  Hakeem Nicks returned but did not look healthy.  He was limping around and showed a lack of full speed on an early long attempt.  The running game was excellent as they had 19 yards.  Between the running game and not getting Manning sacked once for  a third straight week, it seems like this line may have been underrated.  It also seems that Diehl (overrated) may have a tough time getting his starting role back.  Why mess with a good thing?  At this point, the Giant running game has had good weeks 4 out of the last 5.  It can no longer be considered to be a fluke. 

 The Giants survived an early punch in the mouth as the Niners had two good first drives while the Giants did not.  The Niners missed one field goal and were held to 3 points on another deep drive.  With a couple of plays that could have been 14-0 Niners and a very different game.  Getting ahead turned the Niners one dimensional.  It wasn’t that the running game was shut down as the Niners had a decent yards per carry, it was that they needed to catch up and were passing.  Playing from behind is not an Alex Smith/ Niners offense specialty and therefore Smith was forced into uncomfortable throws by a defensive line that didn’t need to mind the rush.  The line teed off on Smith and got to him a season high 6 times. 

On special teams, David Wilson made the most of his opportunities.  He had 2 very good returns, but one was called back by a penalty.  Its seems a matter of time before he takes one all the way.  His second return for 66 yards set the tone for the second half and deflated the Niners coming out of the locker room already down a score.  It was good to see Adrian Tracey as he put pressure on the quarterback and got one sack.  Osi and Tuck are still a little old and overrated,  so it will be nice to see Tracey step up next year as at least one if not both of them are gone.  Another possibility to be gone is Canty as his salary is getting high, but that would only beif they can get Bernard back on the cheap and see something more out of Kuhn or Austin (until now still MIA).  I also think they will move Kiwi to defensive line next year and fill in his spot with their tremendous linebacker depth.  JPP had another great game.  This time, it showed up in the stats as he had 2 sacks but he had been playing very well without the stats until now. 

Antrel Rolle who has been a little overrated until now finally lived up to his contract having his best day as a Giant. He had 2 interceptions and really seemed to always be in the middle of the action.  Prince Amukamara played well and had an interception and it was good to have Holsey back at the nickelback.

The Giants play the RG3 led Redskins this Sunday at Met Life Stadium.  We will have a preview on Friday.

The most worrisome aspect of today’s game is not their opponent.  I Don’t worry about “let downs”.  That is the press’ way to keep interest in the game and the coaches way to motivate the players.  The Giants are too talented for this Browns team.  They will however have to rely on depth.  They are severely injured at key positions.  Blog favorite Hakeem Nicks is out yet again.  So is Barden who had the great game against the Panthers in his absence.  However the Giants are very deep at receiver.  Hixon is a reliable option at #2, and rookie Randle and Jernigan can stop up at the 3.  They may need to go to tight end Bennet a bit more.  But with Manning continuing his other worldly play, and the offensive line still able to pass protect even when they can’t open running lanes, Manning should be good for 340 yards today. 

On defense the loss of Kenny Philips will hurt, as will Jayron Holsey but the biggest loss today will amazingly be Rocky Bernard.  He has been stout in his run defense and his absence will be felt more that the others just due to the relative drop off and inexperience of his backups.  Kuhn or Austin will need to step up.  Stevie Brown in for Phillips and will Hill in for Holsey have each played well when called upon. 

Josh Cribbs is  a dangerous returner for the Browns but this is an area the Giants excel.  After so many years of inadequate special teams the Giants are finally great at covering and have been good at kick off returns.  Punt returns could still use some help.  I hope the Giants give David Wilson another shot to get out of the dog house but I don’t really expect it anymore.  On defense, the biggest concern is starting to be the realization that both Tuck and Umenyora seem to be in severe declines.  They have too much respect in the locker room for Couglin to give Tracey or Ojomo a real shot at replacing them.

While the Giants may not shut down Alabama alum Richardson completely in the running game, and Weeden is as old as over the hill Tuck, he is still a rookie NFL quarterback who will have to deal with a tough Giants defense.  Ultimately, his lack of healthy wide receivers and tight ends will not allow him much success against this beat up Giants defense, and Manning will still be Manning going up against a Browns secondary whose best player (Haden) is still on suspension.  The Giants pull this one out 31-20.

The Giants play the Eagles tonight in a nationally televised game.  The Eagles have narrowly won 2 games and lost their third.  They have been a turnover machine and Vick has been horrible.  The Giants on the other hand have been playing excellent football.  Their offense is playing tremendously and their defense has started to gel.  So why am I worried?  Key Injuries and unsustainable turnover ratios.

Football is a game of matchups.  The Giants passing game is led by the elite quarterback Eli Manning who is playing other worldly.  I don’t expect that to stop but Hakeem Nicks was ruled out for the game with knee swelling.  Yes, the Giants are deep at the position, but Nicks is their best receiver, and unlike a week ago, Ramses Barden will not sneak up on anyone, and most importantly the Eagles are great against the pass.  They have a fearsome pass rush that led the league in sacks last year going against a mediocre Giants offensive line, and they have one of the NFLs best secondaries.  This is a good match up for the Eagles.  The Giants looked great last week without Nicks but that was with Barden going up against a rookie cornerback, not against Rodgers-Cromartie or Asomugha.  This is not a battle in the Giants favor.  Cruz is still a much better receiver when Nicks is on the field and attention is paid away from him.  Last week without Nicks, he was held to 42 yards.  Hixon and Barden will need to step up. 

On defense the big concern is the loss of Holsey to a hamstring injury.  I’m not afraid of Amukamara making his first NFL start,  He held in well.  And if Coe was available as  a third corner Id probably still think we the Giants would be ok, but with both out for this week, Justin Tyron will be the third corner.  The nickel back in the NFL is basically a starter.  He is on the field for the majority of passing plays.  A defense is only as good as its weakest link and Tyron who may not be more than 5 foot 8 is the weak link.  It worries me.  Having said that, there is one match up in the Giants favor.  JPP and Osi will be going up a against a third string left tackle Demetress Bell.  Now he did start many games for the Bills over the past few years and was given a large contract when Jason Peters when out with an injury during the off-season but he was beaten out by the mediocre King Dunlap.  JPP will destroy most, but even Osi, who I think is very overrated is the type to feast on second tier talent.  Lets recall his 6 sack performance against  then Eagles rookie Winston Justice a few years back.  If the Giants can shut down the run game

One last thing that worries me: turnover ratio.  These things tend to even out and the Eagles have been horrific in this category and giants pretty good.  It’s unreasonable to expect the discrepancy to be as wide.  If the Giants don’t win the turnover battle today expect the Eagles to edge them.  If the Giants can win that battle they should win the game. 

A few interesting things to watch for:  How are the carries split between incumbent starter Ahmad Bradshaw returning from injury and his replacement Andre Brown who has looked like  a better version of 2008 Derrick Ward.  Also –with Nicks out and Hixon returning who is the # 2 and who is the # 3 receiver.  Before Nicks was ruled out I read that they were going to play Hixon at the #3 slot.  I am not overreacting to one game when I say Barden deserves the spot. 

When I thought Nicks and Holsey were healthy I thought this would be a big Giants win (30-17), but those injuries are big.  I think the Giants can still pull it out but 24-23.  If they don’t win the turnover battle all bets are off.

The Giants routed the Panthers in Carolina on Thursday night by the score of 36-7. The Giants dominated from the opening kickoff. They were so dominant, that there was an in-season David Carr sighting. It could be argued that game MVP was GM Jerry Reese, as the Giants showed great depth in light of key injuries.  His drafts produced great depth that in generally called upon over the length of an NFL season. Andre Brown continued what he stated in Tampa, running fro 113 yards on 20 carries, and 2 touchdowns. Reese referrers to him as a Derrick Ward type and it is a great comparison. Ramses Barden finally delivered on the promise he has shown every preseason he has been with the Giants. In my Game 1 review, I called on Coughlin to give him more opportunity over Hixon.  Injury wasn't the way it was supposed to happen, but it was the right call. He hauled in 9 receptions for 138 yards and looked ungaurdable. When Nicks comes back, the Giants should have a 3 receiver tandem that is better than last year's Nicks/Cruz/Manningham tandem. A big question will be, is Bradshaw washed up or is the sample size of he and Brown just too small to draw any conclusions?? Either way, expect Brown to see more playing time. What this means for first rounder Wilson, who couldn't' even get garbage time carries over Da'Rel Scott is anyone's guess.

The blessing/curse that is Domenik Hixon- The guy seems to play hard and fast, he is also a very likable player. But every year, he gets injured and the guy who replaces him winds up being a revelation. Two years ago it was Manningham who got his shot when Hixon went down. Last year it was Cruz and this year it is Barden.  Amazing coincidence. The Giants should keep him around forever even if he doesn't get on the field.  Maybe if they put him at Defensive tackle for a week, we can finally get something out of Marvin Austin.

The much maligned defensive back field held their own. Amukamara, is no superstar, but an upgrade over Michael Coe. The secondary is only as strong as its weakest link. It's a shame that Antrel Rolle got hurt by a sideline camera, but it was nice to see Will Hill get some playing time. He is a great athlete and will eventually supplant one of the starting safeties (not this year).

Given the loss of San Francisco and the Eagles, the Giants should climb the power rankings this week. They have a big in conference game this Sunday night against the Eagles. Given the performances of the two teams this weekend, I find the point spread (Eagles -2.5) very surprising. I don't usually put betting tips on the sire, but that is way too expensive. Assuming the Giants are back healthy, take the Giants and the points this week against the Eagles.