Super storm Sandy and other events have taken the column out for
the past 2 weeks. We will back in full force next week. One quick comment about last game and a quick preview of today’s game against the Bengals. Much has been written about the Giants loss to the Steelers. It was a bad loss and Manning has been in a tough slump. There is much blame to go around for last week’s loss on both sides of the football. One guy who has not been blamed, but was largely at fault is Tom Coughlin. Given his 2 superbowls in 5 years he is considered above criticism, in some circles. It is generally fair but he made one egregious error right before the end of the first half that was under noticed. On a third and long with about a minute left in the half from the 33 yard line he called a pass play. It went incomplete, stopping the clock. The Giants attempted and missed a 50 yard field goal, Pittsburg got the ball back, and drove down the field for a field goal of their own. Of course they only need about 40 yards to get into field goal range. Coughlin needs to analyze expected value formulas better. Firstly, statistically a third and long has a low probability of success and even if successful the odds of scoring a touchdown were still not super high. However, with the Steelers in a prevent defense a 4 yards run on third and long was easily achievable. Had he called that play, there was still a chance of a run turning into a first down (a small chance but a chance) and more importantly it would take a 50 yard field goal into a likely 46 yarder or less which probably takes the attempt from a 50/50 proposition to an 85% likelihood for Tynes. As importantly, the clock would have run down so that in the case of a make or miss, it would have left very little time for the Steelers to drive for their own field goal. That underappreciated decision to pass the ball resulted in a 6 point swing, one more than the margin of victory. Giants Bengals preview: The Giants have been playing poor football for a while now. They benefited from sloppy play by Dallas early and a fortunate pass to Cruz late against Washington but both of these games could have gone either way. The last 2 matchups in particular were against very solid passing defenses. Manning is clearly in a slump but is too good of a quarterback to stay in one for long. The Giants are a relatively healthy team with enough pride to go in and beat a mediocre Bengal team in Cincy. Expect Manning to break out of his slump in a big way and for the Giants to make enough adjustments on defense to hold the Bengals in check. They will get their points but not enough to keep up with the Giants. The Giants will have success passing going against a poor pass defense and the Giants use the pass to set up the run. This will allow the running game to get going as well. We are hoping to see David Wilson get some carries. Watching the Bucs Martin (chosen one pick ahead of Wilson) explode for a huge day last week hurts. The Giants will win this game 31-24 with Manning throwing for over 300 yards.
4 Comments
7/22/2014 04:03:42 pm
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Ari GlassAri has been an avid Giants fan since 1979. He attends many home games and has attended the Giants last 2 Superbowl victories. This blog will talk about anything related to the New York Giants. Ari also blogs about the New York Knicks, at http://www.ariglassknicksblog.com Archives
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