Game Theory

The Giants are letting it get leaked that they are not going to take a quarterback with the second pick in the draft, and that specifically they are targeting Saquon Barkley.
 
For reasons to be discussed in the next blog to be posted prior to the draft, the Giants would be foolish to take Barkley.  I believe they must recognize the positional value and that Walter Payton would not be paid what an average NFL quarterback makes.
 
So why are they letting everyone believe they are in on Barkley?
 
It’s all about game theory.  I believe the Giants would like to draft Sam Darnold.  They are unsure as to whether the Browns intend to take Darnold or Allen but don’t think the Browns are strongly convicted on one versus the other. It’s almost obvious that the Browns intend to take Barkley with the 4th pick. They obviously are not going to take a second quarterback with that pick and are not very likely to take Chubb as they took Myles Garret with last year’s number one and need to spread it around a bit more. The Giants are hoping by introducing the idea of Barkley as their choice at #2, they get the Browns to take Barkley at 1, leaving Darnold to the Giants.  The Browns would still know that either Darnold, Allen, Rosen or Mayfield will be available at 4. 
 
The former Giants regime had too many leaks which led to teams trading up to jump them. If I’m right, they are using the false leaks this time around to meet their objectives. It’s a smart move.

-Ari Glass