Giants Draft Preview

This is likely one of the more important draft the Giants have had in years. They have a multitude of picks, and they have numerous holes to fill.  Last years draft was a decent one by Gettlemen except for the very important, not taking Sam Darnold. As readers know, I love Saquon. He is my favorite player, and the most exciting player this side of OBJ that the Giants have had in decades, but the value is just not there for a QB. The best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell got a $13m a year free agent contract.  The lowest paid starting QB in the NFL not on a rookie contract (and also excluding Tom Brady who takes a team-friendly deal, either because he makes so much money elsewhere in endorsements and his wife also makes $40m+ per year, or because he has a side deal with Kraft to get paid in some capacity later) is Andy Dalton who gets an average of $16m per year. Mediocre starts who have signed in recent years have been getting significantly more (Nick Foles at $22m, Derek Carr at $25m, Kirk Cousins at $28m).  IF you get a Darnold at $7.5m who would easily have a free agent value of $22m you are saving nearly $15m a year. What’s done is done. Let’s see what can be done in the 2019 draft to try to fix this.

The Giants hold the #6 and #17 picks in the first round, the latter being acquired in the OBJ deal. As a fan, I didn’t like the OBJ deal but it’s not a horrible deal for a second contract player. To win in the NFL, you need to get approximately $230-240m of production out of a $188m salary cap. The expected value of production from the #17 pick, relative to what they will have to pay him, can save $5m per year, added to the expected production value of Jabrill Peppers versus his contractual requirements is within reasonable distance of what they gave up in OBJ.  Having said that, much of that was undone with the foolish signing of an over the hill Golden Tate.

For many months, the industry prognosticators have had the Giants taking Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins with the #6 pick. I never bought into this. The reasoning is multiple. One, Gettlemen showed last year he won’t chase a QB he is not in love with and I don’t think any of the QBs in this draft are worthy of the #6 overall pick. I did watch Haskins play in one game and I was not very impressed. I understand his overall numbers were great, but he just doesn’t do it for me. Secondly, I think there is a chance to get Josh Rosen who is a better QB than Dwayne Haskins. Thirdly, they think Manning still has something left in the tank and they think that next year’s draft class for QBs is promising. As many as 5 QBs could go in the first-round next year, led by Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm. With at least 3 or 4 QBs being taken in this year first round and those teams needing to see those through, another 3-5 good QBs next year (of which at least 3 would go before any of this year’s QBs), there just may be less competition next year for a QB with better talent. All of this points to not taking a QB at 6. I do think they would take a QB at 17 if Haskins (or in very unlikely case, Murray) slip to 17.  However, I still believe they would be better off parting with a #2 pick to get Josh Rosen despite having lost one year of his contract so far, and likely a second year as he sits behind Manning most of this year.

The Giants have so many holes to fill but the biggest is probably the pass rush. It happens to be a deep year for this years Edge rusher class but the studs at the top will likely be gone by 6. The big question at the top of this year’s draft is whether the Cards really are taking Murray. Until recent days it was a foregone conclusion and he was mocked there by virtually everyone. I was never convinced that it was certain. I think they realized that the only way someone trades up for that pick is if they in fact are taking him and someone else like the Raiders really wants him.  Nobody is trading up to #1 with all of that cost to get an End, even one as good as Bosa when many similar players are available over the next few picks. I think they are legitimately considering it but would need a decent offer on Rosen to pull the trigger. IF they did do it, I do think the Giants should try to get Rosen. 

Rosen played behind a horrific line surrounded by no talent last year. Very few QBs could have overcome that.  He is easily worth giving up a #2 for. In this year draft he is a top 10 or higher.  His value didn’t depress that much in a year.

If the Cards do take Murray – or if the Raiders do at 4 or some other team comes into the top 5 via trade, there is then a few defensive players the Giants should target.  It’s likely that Bosa, Quinnen Williams and Josh Allen will be gone before the Giants pick, if some bizarre confluence of events happens that leaves one of them available, the Giants should jump at that. Most realistically either Ed Oliver or Devin White will be available at 6. If one of them is gone then the Giants could luck into one of the other players. I think that given realistic picks ahead of them, the best the Giants can hope for in round 1 is Devin White, the stud LB from LSU with the first pick (giving Gettlemen his Luke Kuechly) and hope that Clelin Ferrel or Brian Burns are still available at 17. These two would massively improve their defense which was mediocre prior to getting rid of three of their better players in Snacks Harrison, Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple. In round two, the Giants should grab either a cornerback or offensive tackle. These are both positions of need, though its possible that some free agent options still exist at these. 
At the tackle its likely that Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Cody Ford and Jonah Williams will be gone.  I watched the Alabama versus Clemson game this year and though Ferrel dominated Jonah Williams so badly that I grew to really like Ferrel and hope he is there at 17 and really hope that Williams doesn’t come to the Giants. More realistic there is a Dalton Risner or Kaleb McGary or Greg Little at tackle or a Byron Murphy or Deandre Baker at CB.  There is also a fair amount of talent at the WR position even if not top heavy, so I’d expect to see the Giants take a couple of them in rounds 3-5.  Later rounds will be a mix.  They will be smart not to draft any RBs as that position is more than filled. 
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Gettlemen has not shown a history of trading down.  A lot of what makes a good or bad draft is the luck of what other teams do ahead of them. If the Giants can improve their pass rush and solidify other parts of their defense it will have been a good draft. With so many picks this is a very important weekend for the future of the Giants. We look forward to a draft review next week.

-Ari Glass