Disappointing
 
While I don’t personally scout these players it does seem that taking Thomas was a non-consensus pick amongst the 4 top tackles. Regardless, players of essentially equal value went at 11 and 13. There is no point to sucking if you are not going to get a difference maker. It’s disappointing that with two QBs being taken immediately behind them, that a trade down couldn’t be worked out. Gettleman needs to know how to bluff or induce a trade.  He needs to know how to get the Dolphins or Chargers to believe someone is coming to jump them.
 
As much as I like difference makers like Simmons, and would have preferred taking him at 1 and a solid tackle at 2, I understand the reason to take a tackle there. It’s just disappointing that they couldn’t trade down.
 
As we look forward to round 2, I expect the Giants to take either a wide receiver or edge rusher. Top edge rushers include AJ Epinosa from Iowa (my top choice) or Yetur Gross-Matos. At WR I’d hope to be able to draft Clemson’s Tee Higgins.  Unfortunately a lot of the “best players available” right now are running backs, defensive tackles and CBs. 3 positions that Giants should not look to add this high.


​-Ari Glass

The Giants pick 4th tonight, their reward for sucking last year. Unfortunately they didn’t suck enough in a late season game against the Redskins where a meaningless win will likely prevent them from getting start pass rusher Chase Young. A good edge rusher is likely their biggest need. They had a bad pass rush last year and lost their number one sacker in Markus Golden.
 
Unfortunately that is only one of many needs.  The other big need is at tackle.  There are 4 very good tackles that will go early in the draft.
 
It is universally believed that QB Joe Burrow will go first to the Bengals (unless the Dolphins surprise by trading for the pick). Chase Young will likely go to the Skins at #2.  If things go according to “plans” CB Jeff Okudah will likely go to the Lions at 3. But this is where things could get interesting. Either the Skins or the Lions, but more likely the Lions could trade down for a team that really does believe in Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.  On the small chance it’s the Redskins there is a possibility of the Giants getting Chase Young. This is very unlikely.  More likely they stay pat. If the Lions trade for that pick the Giants need to hope for a team like the Raiders or Jags trading up if they really like Justin Herbert.
 
The Giants really want to trade down, because not much separates Jedrick Wills (most likely pick), Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton. Obviously if they could trade down and still get one of them and pick up other picks (perhaps a third rounder to replace the one they idiotically lost in the Leonard Williams trade), it would be great. The big wild card is Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons, who is probably the best player available with the pick but harder to justify with such big holes on the offensive line.
 
Given Gettleman’s general lack of understanding about valuations, I am not hopeful we get this right. But this year will be tough. It all comes down to there being a market for both Justin Herbert and Tua. If they are both coveted, things could happen. If they are not, the Giants will likely take a guy at 4 that looks similar to what they could get at 11. What a waste of a horrible 2019. The Giants were hurt by COVID-19 as the pro day workouts is where people would have fallen in love with Tua and Herbert. Too many questions remain without those private workouts.
 
They should try to get a WR in round 2 or 3 (supplemental pick) as this draft is deep there and the Giants lack good depth there. They can generally pick the best available player because they have holes virtually everywhere.


​-Ari Glass

The Giants play in what has turned into the weakest division in football.  Between hosting the Cardinals this weekend and the surprisingly inept play of the Eagles and Cowboys, The Giants should be tied for second, only one game out of first place in the NFL at least by Sunday night with most intra-division games still coming. This will inevitably leave the Giants thinking about the playoffs.  With the Lions and Packers as the only two very good teams still on the schedule, it’s not a crazy thought. However, the Giants should not forget the game plan.  This is a team that was not built to compete in 2019. They are -intelligently- eating a ton of dead cap space this year and have piled into good young talent and draft picks setting themselves up for a future.
 
The NFL trade deadline is quite early which typically, but not always is limiting of the trade market. However, to the degree that trades are possible the Giants should look to be sellers. 
One of my readers suggested he thought that Eli Manning would be traded. It would be amazing if that was possible, but it is incredibly unlikely. There would still be over $8m left on his contract for this year and there are limited teams looking to pay that. Also, most teams without a QB are out of contention for a playoff spot, and others have had surprisingly high production by backups. Lastly, QB, more than any other position, is hard to integrate into a new team. They need to know the offense and have studied the playbook for weeks. Barring an unexpected injury over next week or two I see it as unlikely that the Giant’s would find a trade partner who would pull the trigger on this trade.
 
Janoris Jenkins remains a small possibility with certain teams needing significant help at CB. The peters and Ramsey traders show both the need for QBs as well as get rid of potential suitors. Given the drafting the Giants have done at this position and the amount he is owed next year, he will almost certainly not be a part of next year’s team anyway. He looked awful for part of the season and much better over past few weeks, so it’s unclear if anyone would pull the trigger on this.
 
The most trade-able asset the Giants have is Markus Golden. He is on a one year cheap “prove it” contract and he has proven it. He appears to be back to 2016 form when he had 12.5 sacks (currently on pace for 13).  Many teams could use a pass rusher. One team being the Chiefs, who have the best QB in football and a defense who has stopped no one. This is at least partially due to a pass rush which has produced less than 2 sacks per game in 2019. They have serious Superbowl aspirations and should give up real assets for this (at least a 3rd round pick).  The Giants should not delude themselves into thinking they can have a successful year and hold on to assets if they get a reasonable offer.
 
As far as this coming game is concerned, while I normally believe the running back position is over rated and hence the absence of Barkley is over rated; A, Barkley is special and B, more importantly, with Gallman also out, the Giants were forced to play Hilliman, who wasn’t even particularly good at Rutgers. The drop-off from 1-3 was so big that no QB could have scored with both no running game and their top WR and TE out.  While Shepard will likely still be out, Engrams returns along with Barkley against a defense that is not ranked very high.
 
The defense didn’t look too bad against New England. They looked horrible against the Vikings but that was at least in part due to having third string middle LBs there. As much as I’m not a fan of Ogletree the drop-off to the off the street Nate Stuppar was so big that the defense looked worse than it is.  With a reasonably healthy defense and mostly healthy offense the Giants should be able to beat a Cardinals team that has played better than many expected -although I’d point out that beating the Falcons is not really the accomplishment that people think. They are a horrible team.

 I expect the Giants to win by a touchdown.

-Ari Glass

Daniel Jones continues to make the “experts” eat their words. Admittedly, we were one who was not happy with the Giants selection of him. We still stand by the opinion that he could have been had at 17 with Josh Allen at 6. Imagine how much better you would feel about the draft if that was how it went down.

Some Giants friends of mine say its nice to finally have a QB with accuracy. I still don’t agree on that. I feel Manning was reasonably accurate. The most noticeable difference between Manning and Jones is their legs, not the arm.

From scrambling away from trouble to actually running for two touchdowns, these few plays a game where the ability to run matter are big differences.  When the line is mediocre, the value of the ability to run is even that much greater. Jones is an athlete. Manning even in his younger days was purely a quarterback but never a gifted athlete.

The Giants had good fortune to win that game. They probably didn’t deserve to if they had to rely on the miss of a short field goal attempt to accomplish it.  Even a loss would not have changed the fact that Giants fans need to be much happier today. For the first time in years, there is hope.

As this blog has written before, the way to winning a championship is to get materially more value out of the players than what they are being paid. Solid NFL starts on their second contract make at least mid -$20m (with Dak Prescott expected to get over $30m and I don’t consider him a top 15 QB). Paying $8m per year saves $16m+, probably a third of what a team needs to save to compete for a Championship.

Having a good QB on a rookie contract is how teams are usually successful. Look at recent success of Seahawks with Russell Wilson on his first contract or the Eagles with Carson Wentz, or the Rams with Goff. The Seahawks had to cut talent when they gave Wilson his big deal and the Rams and Eagles will have to do the same when contract two kicks in next year for their QBs.

The defense remains horrific. The pass rush got marginally better and Deandre Baker played a decent game, leaving hope that it was rookie jitters holding him back. The best development may have been the injury Alec Ogletree. He makes too much and must be gone by next year. The same goes for CB Jenkins who no longer has the latent to justify his huge contract. Eliminating those two, and Manning from the salary cap as well as being done with eating the unamortized portion of Vernon and OBJ, will mean the Giant’s will have some good young talent along with some significant cap space next year. For the first time in a while the future doesn’t look so dim. On the other hand, with Gettlemen as GM (which may now be solidified with Jones, the Giants will likely squander what they have going.

Losing Barkley hurts. He is far and away my favorite player, and the one who can go the distance at a moment’s notice. He should be back in 6-8 weeks. I like Wayne Gallman (who is in a different class but is a good back up).  The Giants now probably wish they had not cut Perkins.
 
- Ari Glass

Coach Schumer announced that he will replace Eli Manning after 15 years with rookie Daniel Jones.  Jones, who was over drafted by GM Gettlemen this past off-season, has nonetheless looked good in his preseason opportunity. 

The Giants deny this but it’s clearly a decision to turn the page on this season and start looking towards the future. I didn’t think Eli was playing poorly. I thought he played well in Dallas and was hampered by having no receivers to throw to against Buffalo. I don’t think Jones gives them a better chance to win right now. IF the Giants’ are arriving at the belated reality that the team as constructed is not playoff caliber so they may as well turn towards the future, its hard to argue with this approach. They are correct in that assessment and should have gotten there much earlier.  I thought Eli deserved a few more weeks but certainly at some point it made sense to make the move. Of course, they then didn’t need to pay Eli $24m for 2 games. They should’ve moved on in the off-season and been able to spend that money elsewhere.

I’d love to see them pull off a trade and get something for Eli (Pittsburg?), but salary cap considerations make this virtually impossible. The good news is that Eli did serve the purpose of tutoring young Jones.  Spending all of training camp and the pre-season allowed Jones to learn a lot from Eli. 

While Jones played exceptionally well in the preseason, it should be remembered that he played against second string defenses and had a small enough sample size as to not be statistically significant. I expect him not to be as good, but it will be nice to have a QB who can run with the ball when the pressure comes. I’d expect 2 first downs a week with his legs -something you would never get from Eli.  Eli was a great Giant. He was much maligned and never got the credit he deserved.

Some go too far and think he could be HOF-worthy just off his two Superbowl victories. I think he will fall just short and not get in. He had a 4-5 year run where he was among the top 6 or 7 QBs in the league and the long duration of his career has led to his being among the all-time leaders in passing yards and TD passes, but good for a long time is not as much of a requirement as elite for a period of time.

Barkley continues to be all-world and showing that with a better offensive line his stats will be even greater.  Despite that, the Giants getting blown out in two games just proved how not important running backs are in today's NFL and why the Giants should’ve not taken a running back that high, even if he is far and away my favorite player and the reason to watch blow out games.

It is a shame that this team that is destined for a top few pick in a class loaded with good QB Talent doesn’t need to draft a QB.  Early projections will leave the Giants’ with either a good WR or edge rusher, both big needs to this team. Given how bad the defense is, I’d take the edge rusher (I had wanted Josh Allen in the draft). Tampa has a good defense so its an interesting time to get him a first start but hopefully the return of Devin White from an injury is delayed past this Sunday.

The Giants were headed towards a 5-11 season. I don’t think Jones will drastically alter this in either direction.  

​-Ari Glass

This is likely one of the more important draft the Giants have had in years. They have a multitude of picks, and they have numerous holes to fill.  Last years draft was a decent one by Gettlemen except for the very important, not taking Sam Darnold. As readers know, I love Saquon. He is my favorite player, and the most exciting player this side of OBJ that the Giants have had in decades, but the value is just not there for a QB. The best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell got a $13m a year free agent contract.  The lowest paid starting QB in the NFL not on a rookie contract (and also excluding Tom Brady who takes a team-friendly deal, either because he makes so much money elsewhere in endorsements and his wife also makes $40m+ per year, or because he has a side deal with Kraft to get paid in some capacity later) is Andy Dalton who gets an average of $16m per year. Mediocre starts who have signed in recent years have been getting significantly more (Nick Foles at $22m, Derek Carr at $25m, Kirk Cousins at $28m).  IF you get a Darnold at $7.5m who would easily have a free agent value of $22m you are saving nearly $15m a year. What’s done is done. Let’s see what can be done in the 2019 draft to try to fix this.

The Giants hold the #6 and #17 picks in the first round, the latter being acquired in the OBJ deal. As a fan, I didn’t like the OBJ deal but it’s not a horrible deal for a second contract player. To win in the NFL, you need to get approximately $230-240m of production out of a $188m salary cap. The expected value of production from the #17 pick, relative to what they will have to pay him, can save $5m per year, added to the expected production value of Jabrill Peppers versus his contractual requirements is within reasonable distance of what they gave up in OBJ.  Having said that, much of that was undone with the foolish signing of an over the hill Golden Tate.

For many months, the industry prognosticators have had the Giants taking Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins with the #6 pick. I never bought into this. The reasoning is multiple. One, Gettlemen showed last year he won’t chase a QB he is not in love with and I don’t think any of the QBs in this draft are worthy of the #6 overall pick. I did watch Haskins play in one game and I was not very impressed. I understand his overall numbers were great, but he just doesn’t do it for me. Secondly, I think there is a chance to get Josh Rosen who is a better QB than Dwayne Haskins. Thirdly, they think Manning still has something left in the tank and they think that next year’s draft class for QBs is promising. As many as 5 QBs could go in the first-round next year, led by Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm. With at least 3 or 4 QBs being taken in this year first round and those teams needing to see those through, another 3-5 good QBs next year (of which at least 3 would go before any of this year’s QBs), there just may be less competition next year for a QB with better talent. All of this points to not taking a QB at 6. I do think they would take a QB at 17 if Haskins (or in very unlikely case, Murray) slip to 17.  However, I still believe they would be better off parting with a #2 pick to get Josh Rosen despite having lost one year of his contract so far, and likely a second year as he sits behind Manning most of this year.

The Giants have so many holes to fill but the biggest is probably the pass rush. It happens to be a deep year for this years Edge rusher class but the studs at the top will likely be gone by 6. The big question at the top of this year’s draft is whether the Cards really are taking Murray. Until recent days it was a foregone conclusion and he was mocked there by virtually everyone. I was never convinced that it was certain. I think they realized that the only way someone trades up for that pick is if they in fact are taking him and someone else like the Raiders really wants him.  Nobody is trading up to #1 with all of that cost to get an End, even one as good as Bosa when many similar players are available over the next few picks. I think they are legitimately considering it but would need a decent offer on Rosen to pull the trigger. IF they did do it, I do think the Giants should try to get Rosen. 

Rosen played behind a horrific line surrounded by no talent last year. Very few QBs could have overcome that.  He is easily worth giving up a #2 for. In this year draft he is a top 10 or higher.  His value didn’t depress that much in a year.

If the Cards do take Murray – or if the Raiders do at 4 or some other team comes into the top 5 via trade, there is then a few defensive players the Giants should target.  It’s likely that Bosa, Quinnen Williams and Josh Allen will be gone before the Giants pick, if some bizarre confluence of events happens that leaves one of them available, the Giants should jump at that. Most realistically either Ed Oliver or Devin White will be available at 6. If one of them is gone then the Giants could luck into one of the other players. I think that given realistic picks ahead of them, the best the Giants can hope for in round 1 is Devin White, the stud LB from LSU with the first pick (giving Gettlemen his Luke Kuechly) and hope that Clelin Ferrel or Brian Burns are still available at 17. These two would massively improve their defense which was mediocre prior to getting rid of three of their better players in Snacks Harrison, Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple. In round two, the Giants should grab either a cornerback or offensive tackle. These are both positions of need, though its possible that some free agent options still exist at these. 
At the tackle its likely that Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Cody Ford and Jonah Williams will be gone.  I watched the Alabama versus Clemson game this year and though Ferrel dominated Jonah Williams so badly that I grew to really like Ferrel and hope he is there at 17 and really hope that Williams doesn’t come to the Giants. More realistic there is a Dalton Risner or Kaleb McGary or Greg Little at tackle or a Byron Murphy or Deandre Baker at CB.  There is also a fair amount of talent at the WR position even if not top heavy, so I’d expect to see the Giants take a couple of them in rounds 3-5.  Later rounds will be a mix.  They will be smart not to draft any RBs as that position is more than filled. 
​
Gettlemen has not shown a history of trading down.  A lot of what makes a good or bad draft is the luck of what other teams do ahead of them. If the Giants can improve their pass rush and solidify other parts of their defense it will have been a good draft. With so many picks this is a very important weekend for the future of the Giants. We look forward to a draft review next week.

-Ari Glass

It was a bad season.  We had predicted 7-9 but acknowledged that 5-11 was much more realistic than 9-7. 

It was a tale of two halves.  The first half they were 1-7 and completely inept on offense but decent on defense. The second half their offense was one of the higher scoring teams but their defense suffered from a couple of bad trades made by the Giants to dump players in the middle of year that was clearly not going anywhere.

The O-line was as bad as we feared.  It killed Manning’s ability to stand in the pocket and hurt superstar rookie RB Barkley’s ability to consistently pound out yards each down.  Mid-season they upgraded the line by finally cutting the horrible Flowers and replacing him with a still at best mediocre Chad Wheeler, and cutting Omameh and replacing him with Jamon Brown, a solid but unspectacular Guard who got caught up in a numbers game with the Rams and the Giants were fortunate to pick him up on waivers since they had the second pick as a bad team.  Going from horrible to mediocre was a huge upgrade and significantly helped the offense.  With a solid tackle resigning Jamon Brown will be ok.  Wheeler must go to improve the line.  On the left side of the online they massively overpaid for Nate Solder. Nothing can be done about that anymore, but at least he is solid. Hernandez had an excellent rookie year at Left Guard and should be there for the next 10 years.  They claim to like Halapio who got injured early and should be back, but it’s still disappointing that they gave away Brett Jones for a 7th round pick.  He performed well in Minnesota and the Giants did not get good enough return for him. If the top pass rushers are not available when the Giants pick at 6 this coming year, they should strongly consider offensive tackle Jonah Williams who would solidify their line.

Their defense was OK early. Then they traded the best run-stuffer in the NFL in Damon Harrison and a solid #2 corner-back in Eli Apple.  They also lost star safety, Collins late in the year. The upsetting part about the trades was not the impact it had on this year’s team; this year’s team wasn’t going anywhere anyway. It’s that these two players were still performing better than their contracts and would have been pluses for 2019. The Giants can’t stop the run or pass. That is a bad combo. Getting Collins back (he is a restricted free agent), along with signing an adequate free safety is important. Their linebackers are solid but not spectacular and their line has some components but needs more. Most importantly, they need a far greater pass rush. It got a little better when Oliver Vernon returned and the rookie Carter started to under earn the game but they are one game changer away here.  If one of the elite pass rushers is still available with the #6 pick next year, the Giants should go in that direction.

The Giants did draft Sam Beal in last year’s supplemental draft and he is highly thought of by the organization.  He missed the year with an injury but should come in as a starter next year.
Barkley was the all-World, “Touched by the hand of God” back that Gettleman predicted he would be. I’m still not convinced that the positional value was there to draft him at #2, but I’m also confident that my son will be playing the video of my screaming for Darnold at the draft and being upset about Barkley, at Barkley’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 15 years.  As a fan, he is truly a pleasure to watch. Even the bad games I watched until the end just to see him. He is as good of a running back as I have seen play. If he gets to play behind a real offensive line, he should be good for 1600-1800 yards of rushing in addition to 600 receiving. He will threaten records. I still think his second contract will pay him less per year than the 20th best quarterback will make that year- so the argument is still out there against, but I prefer to enjoy the Barkley experience and not focus on that.

The Eli debate-

As I’ve said for a while, while he is not at the elite level he was in 2014, with a good line he is still a quality quarterback and was not the problem. When line play improved in the second half of the year so did his play. He shouldn’t lose his mental acumen and his arm strength is still there.  I’m sure his mobility is more limited but that was never part of his game. Drafting the wrong quarterback will set a team back for years. I’m not sold on Haskins from Ohio State and Justin Herbert is not coming out.  I am not in favor of the Giants drafting a QB in the draft this year. Hopefully Gettleman plays his poker well and gets Manning to come back for closer to $15m than the $23m he is otherwise playing for. At that price he makes sense for next year.
I’m not a fan of Flacco or even Nick Foles (at least not at the $20m per year he may get). Presumably, Pat Shurmur has both the inside track and inside information on how good Teddy Bridgewater is having coached him in Minnesota.  If he is convinced that he is healthy and he likes his talent, getting him to sign for 3 years at $15m could make sense.  Otherwise you need to wait for the class of 2020 which is supposed to be a high quality QB class unlike this one.  This is clearly the biggest decision that needs to happen this offseason. Gettleman better have a good poker face. Given that Eli is a big family man and his kids have been raised in new jersey and are starting to get old enough that their opinion matters, I suspect that Eli will not want to move his family for the last year or two of his career to go play in a Jacksonville or somewhere else. 

Lastly, I keep reading that the Giants should cut Vernon and Jenkins because of their high salaries. Given that their bonuses were large and much of it is a sunk cost, the salary impact of keeping versus cutting is not enough for them to cut them. They should be kept. Note, however, that this was the mistake Gettleman made on JPP this past year. 
​
It was a disappointing year but there are some pieces in place. The draft seemed to be a decent one with at least 4 players who will be playing major roles with the Giants going forward.  They need a strong 2019 draft which will be helped by a high pick. I think Gettleman is not the right GM.  He is ok as a draft expert, but he doesn’t understand enough about salary cap management and other financial and statistical requirements of the role. I will painfully watch other teams compete in the playoffs and hope the Giants do enough in the offseason.
 
 -Ari Glass
 
 

The Giants lost to a very mediocre Redskins team.  Once again, the offensive line’s ineptness cost them any chance of a victory.  

The season is a disaster. I’m not saying that based on the record of 1-7.  Bad seasons will happen. Unlike last season’s 3-13 record, the Giants made moves that could have long term pain.  It’s become glaringly obvious that Gettleman is in over his head.  Virtually every move he has made has been a bad one.

He is a decent, but below average talent evaluator. Probably as importantly, he doesn’t understand salary cap management and values of positions and/or of player talent. This is essential for a GM.

Trading away JPP preseason didn’t make sense. The cap hit was similar as to if he was still here.  He was made for a 304 and he is in fact playing great in Tampa. Not resigning Kennard was also a mistake as he is playing well in Detroit.

The one good thing about a new GM is that since they have a clean slate they are not likely to cover past mistakes by keeping old draft picks longer than they should. However, if you start signing your old Carolina players and over-valuing them it’s the same thing.  Omameh has been a disaster.  Stewart was an obvious disaster before he was signed.  And they could have had so much better if they would have simply used the extra 3.8m on their own guy.  Trading Bert Jones who they desperately need and getting only a 7th round pick for him was absurd.  7th rounders have almost no value. To have starting caliber lineman at what he was making is a big deal.

That brings me to the recent trades of Harrison and Apple. They were bad trades.  I’m all for the idea that you should start turning the page and thinking about next year. This year isn’t happening, and they should do that. However, the name of the game is to accumulate talent at a cost of less than their intrinsic value. I’ve written about this topic when discussing the Darnold versus Barkley issue.

Harrison is an elite run-stuffer and his value is greater than his annual cost. Apple, for all of his troubles and his not playing like a first round pick, is still very much a starting caliber cornerback and since he is on a rookie contract, is also playing for less than his value. As such, these needed to net at least 3rd, if not 2nd round picks. This is not who they should have been trading. The Rams got this formula correctly last year when they dumped Ogletree on us.  They got a 3rd round pick and got rid of a player with a big contract who was not playing up to the contract.  The Giant team is full of players who get paid more than the value they add. Anyone willing to take them can have them for anything, but trading Harrison for a 5th and Apple for a 4th doesn’t cut it. It’s rare to find good talent after round 3. The average player taken down there is not a starter. They needed to get more.

Overpaying on long term contracts for guys who don’t meet the contractual status is how you lock yourself into being a bad team for a while to come.  Having a GM who doesn’t understand the basics means they will be bad for years to come.

On Eli:
Eli is still a solid quarterback.  He is not a top 10 as he was as recently as 4 years ago. But he is a solid 15-20. He is playing behind an awful line. Yes, a more mobile quarterback could handle that better, but Aaron Rodgers couldn’t play behind this line. Every quarterback is bad with no time to throw.  Even so, he is on the decline and won’t be around when they get good again.

Sadly, the quarterback class of 2019 doesn’t look so promising and now all the Florida based teams have realized they need a QB. Miami may move on from Tannehill, Jags will almost certainly do that with Bortles and even the Bucs look ready to move on from Winston. The Giants will likely try to draft a quarterback. Another possibility is getting Manning to play for $10m instead of the enormous number he has coming. Nobody else will offer him a starting job next year and if he wants to keep playing I’m sure he’d prefer New Jersey and won’t get more than $10m elsewhere.
 
 -Ari Glass
 

The Giants are proving to be the slightly less than mediocre team I expected they would be.  The season is on the verge of spinning out of control and they are going on the road to play in Charlotte against a Panther team coming off of a bye.  They are 7-7.5 point heavy underdogs.  Yet I’m predicting an upset.
 
Finally returning to the lineup is both Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple. Vernon was made for a 3-4 defense at the outside linebacker position.  More importantly, the Giants have generally stopped the run well despite a few big runs and quarterback scrambles skewing the stats.  The rest of the Giant team is horrific at rushing the passer. Having a bonafide pass rusher like Vernon will make a huge difference in the amount of time QBs have to pass the ball. Vernon is not a big name but is very skilled and is filling the team’s biggest need (the Giants are tied for league low 5 sacks). Additionally, Webb filling for Apple was hurting. Apple was off to a great start before getting injured. Newton scares me as the Giants are not great at playing the read option with mobile quarterbacks, but I do believe the Giants can stop the run, and then with Vernon and Apple, excel against the pass too. Also, the Giant offense, while bad this year, doesn’t look as far from competent as the number might suggest. They will give Barkley the ball more often. Engram out injured still hurts but they will have enough to score 20 which could win this game.
 
Lastly, the Giants have only forced 3 turnovers this year (second to worst in the league). Some of that is luck. The part that adds skill usually comes from rushed passers throwing interceptions which happens more often with a good pass rush.
 
In a surprise to all the Giants will win this one 20-17
 

-Ari Glass

The Giants looked horrific in losing to the Cowboys 20-13.  If possible, the Giants offensive line got worse than last year (but at a higher cost). People are killing Manning for his ineptness, but the reality is that almost no one can pass behind that line. Certainly, a more mobile quarterback could buy more time (like Sam Darnold).

Barkley is an interesting case.  He set a Giant record with 14 catches, but all dump offs that went nowhere. He got nowhere on the ground. Despite these facts, amazingly I thought he was fantastic. I’ve never seen a back break so many tackles and make so many guys miss. It speaks to just how bad the line is and it also speaks to the fact that the line is so important in the success of a running back that running backs just don’t deserve to be valued that highly. There is a reason I didn’t think the Giants should take Barkley, no matter how talented he is.

If this was a game, or even a season that was looking bad, it would be sad but manageable.  Unfortunately, I think the future for the Giants is bleak. The GM (Gettleman) has made so many errors that will cost them for many years to come. It wasn’t just not drafting Darnold which they will regret for years. They should not have given up JPP, or DRC (or Bert Jones who is now needed at Center), or signed Ogletree (the Rams would have given him up for less than nothing as he is no longer a plus player).  Solder at $17m is overpaid.  The worst crime may have been Jon Stewart, a washed up running back that they would not have needed even if it was a few years ago. He is similarly talented to Justin Pugh but at a much higher price. You can get any player you want if you are willing to massively overpay but with a salary cap it means you are sacrificing other areas. Omameh is useless. He is not an upgrade over John Jerry but also at a much higher price. The biggest problem with these signings is that the structure of signing bonuses getting accrued over the life means you really can’t cut the players who don’t perform without a substantial cap hit until the end of the contract.
 
Looking for bright spots:
Granted the Jags and Cowboys are not good passing teams, but the overall Giant defense held up in each game. Take away an early game slip by Jenkins on a long touchdown and the Giant defense held both teams in check despite not having their best player available in Olivier Vernon.  The difference between having one good pass rusher and none is huge.  The defense will get better with his return.  Certainly, a smart coach like Shurmur will make some adjustments on offense but this is not going to be a playoff team.  Its hard to believe that they won’t figure out something to make them a little better.  Most of the problem is lack of skills, but they also piled on by not knowing how to pick up stunts.

Another attempt at Optimism:
Why the Giants passing on a QB in this year’s draft could pan out. Quarterbacks are far and away the highest priced players on the field.  They should be as their performance is the single highest determinant of success.  As a result, even the 29th best quarterback (in a 30 team league) gets paid well as you need to have a quality starter.

Unlike other positions such as receiver and lineman, teams really only play one quarterback. As a result, they won’t pay much for a second quarterback.  While the QBs in the league are not all great, it could be a unique time next season where there are no teams looking to draft a quarterback.

Think about it. The only teams without decent quarterback play are teams that recently drafted and committed to young QBs and won’t give up on that very soon. The Cards took Rosen, the Bills, Allen.  While some teams with older QBs will look to the future, they won’t trade up to get that done.
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Additionally, even not counting guys like Fitzpatrick, Bradford or McNown, who are quality starters (and at this point of similar talent to Manning), guys like McCarron and Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor are out there and won’t have starting jobs next year unless signed by a new team as a free agent. Simply put, the talent difference between the 20th best quarterback and the 30th best (including next year’s draft picks) will not be that large. The difference is that the free agent value of the 15th best will be $22m per year, while the 30th best could be had for $7-10m, or the price of the draft pick to sign next year’s top rookie QBs will be much less expensive than normal. It may be a very good time to be looking for a new QB next year. There is no way this went into Gettleman’s thinking and even if it did they should have drafted Bradley Chubb, but this may be stroke of luck that works out well.
 
 -Ari Glass